Fillon Refuses to Withdraw From Election

French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is stroking cows and promising new, improved subsidies to farmers who fear their livelihood is on its last legs after years of crisis. “That would be the horror scenario for the markets and the European Union given her radical euro-exit policies”, Jan Randolph, head of sovereign risk at IHS Markit, told CNBC about Monday’s market moves. But she faces a challenge to convince moderate voters to back her party, which hails from France’s far right and whose platform includes radical policies like leaving the euro currency. In the same poll, just 17 percent of respondents said that they thought Le Pen would emerge as president from any second round scenario.

Faced with Fillon’s and Le Pen’s mounting defiance and attacks, Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve responded on Monday.

Analysts urge caution about making firm forecasts, however, after a series of political shocks in Western democracies in the a year ago and a string of surprises in French politics.

So what are the scenarios that could lead to the once unthinkable becoming reality?

Center-right candidate François Fillon, accused of using roughly one million euros in French parliamentary funds to pay his wife and children for jobs they did not actually do, was put under official investigation on Friday.

“If other candidates like Emmanuel Macron or the Socialist Benoit Hamon are hit by scandal it will play into Le Pen’s hands”, said Cautres.

In 2015 Le Pen, an MEP representing her National Front political party, posted graphic images of ISIL executions including the beheading of United States journalist James Foley.

Le Pen said she and Hariri, who has longstanding ties to France, agreed on “the absolute necessity” for nations wanting to fight the Islamic State group tearing Syria and Iraq apart to come “to the table”, an apparent reference to formal talks. Le Pen has 1.3m Twitter followers, and nearly as many Facebook “likes”, more than twice as many as Macron – despite his supposed youthful appeal.

“Beyond the judicial procedure, I now appeal to the French people alone”.

The runner-up in the party’s first-ever primary, the more centre-leaning Alain Juppe, has said he would not want to run in Mr Fillon’s place.

Both Fillon and Le Pen are seen as pro-Putin candidates.

“To imagine that investigations could have been ordered on Fillon or Marine Le Pen is completely absurd because it’s illegal”, Justice Minister Jean-Jacques Urvoas told a newspaper on Sunday.

Le Pen would now lose a hypothetical second round to Macron, 62 percent to 38 percent, as indicated by an IFOP poll released Monday.