Final opinion poll points to UK staying in EU

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Nerves are frayed on both sides of the European Union referendum campaign, with neither side confident of victory despite the Remain camp jumping slightly ahead of Leave, according to phone polls a day before the vote.

A ComRes poll for the Daily Mail and ITV News gives the Remain campaign an eight-point cushion. In Scotland, a last minute shift by the undecided voters toward “Stay” (staying in the U.K.) tilted the scales, despite a robust grassroots campaign run by the “Leave” side and a lackluster and demoralised campaign by “Stay”.

There was a spike in the value of sterling and UKIP leader Nigel Farage told Sky News: “It looks like Remain will edge it”.

Voting will end at 2100 GMT (2200 BST), with results expected early on Friday. Whilst the count has a long way to go. The BBC estimates that “leave” will win by a margin of roughly 52 percent to 48 percent. With some results in, Remain also appeared to be doing well in Scotland, though turnout was lower than some expected.

We should start getting a good idea from noon onwards as more votes start flowing from the London area.

Reigate and Banstead, Runnymede, Spelthorne, Surrey Heath and Tandridge all voted to leave the EU.

TNS and Opinium still put the leave camp slightly ahead. Bookies have placed the odds of Bremain at 3 times more likely than Brexit.

“The results are close and it too early to call it definitively. But based on the figures that we are seeing, based on the trends that have occurred and based on historical precedent we think that “Remain” are in the strongest position”, he said.

The pound sterling gained ground following the poll, trading at $1.4866 compared to $1.4835 just ahead of its release.

Fifty-six per cent of votes cast in Northern Ireland were to remain, while 44% voted to leave the EU. Many of these accounts seem to suggest that the Leave voter in question thought their vote would serve as a protest vote.

Experts predicted a high turnout would benefit the Remain campaign.

The message included a photo of a queue outside a polling station in a “leafy London suburb”.

When do the polls close?

Polling stations will close across the United Kingdom at 10pm, an hour after those in Gibraltar.

David Cameron – whose future as Prime Minister is now in doubt – is due to make an address to the country.

If “leave” wins, he may have no choice but to resign. “Talk about lame ducks”.

“One of the deeper headlines from tomorrow, of a narrow victory either way, is that wider Europe has got to learn the lesson about how to re-engage with ordinary publics”, he said. “I think the period of uncertainty we’re going to have for the next few months has been magnified, so I’m quite anxious”.