Forecast: ‘Strong’ El Niño season coming

Scientists stated that the intensity of El Nino has increased manifold since it last hit in the year 1997-98.

The wild card is the pool of very warm water in the Gulf of Alaska which would tend to bring warmer weather there and colder than normal across the eastern U.S.

El Nino occurs when the ocean temperatures are well above normal from off the coast of South America into the central Pacific.

“If we get a lot of rain, but it doesn’t get north of Interstate 80, it won’t put as big a dent in the drought”, said Jan Null, a Saratoga meteorologist.

In its latest monthly update, federal scientists say a consensus now unanimously favors a strong El Niño, and they point to rising ocean temperatures, weakening easterly winds, and other atmospheric factors as evidence for the prediction.

In July, UC Irvine hydrologist Amir Aghakouchaktold CBS Los Angeles that the predicted El Niño rains could result in excessive stress on levies, roads and hillsides that have started to dry and crack in California’s historic drought. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998, 1982-83 and 1972-73.

Schneider says he’s already gotten his fill of odd weather, so it was hard to be surprised by today’s announcement that the El Niño weather system could be one for the record books. There were massive floods and mudslides in California.

NOAA said there is a 90 percent chance El Niño will continue through the winter, and about an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.

The forecast could be good news for California, which could receive an unusual amount of much-needed rain in the middle of a four-year-long drought.

“It would be an interesting dichotomy”, NOAA’s Halpert said, “to have flooding while you are still in the midst of a severe drought”. Contact him at 408-920-5045.