Forecasters predict milder winter for Northeast due to ‘Godzilla El Niño’

Temperatures dipped into record lows multiple times last winter, so cheers to possibly avoiding that again. Areas north and west of Worcester, particularly at higher elevations, can expect snowfall somewhat above seasonal averages.

Weather forecasters say the start of winter in our region will be milder than usual, but they are still expecting that the mercury will drop and flakes will fly in the latter part of the season.

But those winters are relegated to the annals of history and this year we’ll find ourselves anxious more about rain than massive amounts of snowfall, says Carl Erickson, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather. February 2015 went down in the record books as the second coldest February in Boston.

“[The heavy rain] is going to lead to patterns in the mud where water will travel rapidly and lead to flooding”, Pastelok said.

Mudslides, especially worrisome in areas that have been scarred by forest fires, are also a hazard associated with heavy rainfall in the state.

While the two main USA farmers’ almanacs are calling for a brutal winter, a long-term forecast from AccuWeather.com brings news that might be received a bit more, um, warmly.

In the southern Plains, the building El Niño will dictate an active storm track, meaning the region could end up with above-normal precipitation, forecasters said.

It could also bring drought relief to California, but below-normal precipitation, in the form of both rain and snow, and above-normal temperatures will define the season across the Northwest and northern and eastern Rockies.

“In its weekly report, the Climate Prediction Center said today that there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016”.

Natural gas customers are banking on El Nino – a warming of the Pacific Ocean that historically occurs about every three to five years – to keep temperatures mild this winter (see Daily GPI, September 21).