French far right faces test in regional election runoff

In the first round of voting, the National Front led in six of France’s 13 regions, edging former President Nicolas Sarkozy’s conservative Les Republicains party into second place nationally.

The leader of the anti-immigration FN, Le Pen, lost out to the right-wing opposition in the northern Nord-Pas-de-Calais Picardie region after the ruling socialist party (PS) pulled out of the race before the second round.

But analysts cautioned that it would be a mistake to discount the party, which has cemented its position in the French political mainstream with steady electoral gains since Le Pen took the helm from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2011.

The regional election, the last one before the 2017 presidential and parliamentary ballots, was seen as a test for its main contenders, Hollande, Sarkozy and Le Pen.

What’s more, 67 percent of the French have a negative opinion of the National Front, an Odoxa poll released December 11 found. Broken down, 76 percent of respondents said it was “discriminatory”, 66 percent said it would bring “disorder” and 63 percent agreed it “has an economic program that would be unsafe for the country”.

Tactical voting carries a political risk for the Socialists, though, as it plays into the far right’s claim that the two main parties are indistinguishable. Le Pen has repeatedly declared that she is heading toward the 2017 presidential elections with the intentions of qualifying for the second round.

But Sunday’s results showed the 47-year-old lawyer by training still has some way to go before convincing the majority of French voters that her party is no longer a collection of unsafe extremists.

Estimates show the National Front has failed to win a single region despite big gains in the first round.

Marechal-Le Pen took 45 percent against the 55 percent for the right-wing’s candidate, Nice Mayor Christian Estrosi, in the FN’s traditional stronghold in the south.

Ipsos, Ifop and TNS-Sofres-OnePoint projected that Le Pen won around 42 percent compared with Bertrand’s 57 percent.

The atmosphere in the hall in Henin-Beaumont where National Front supporters were gathered to watch election results was grim, in stark contrast to a week earlier when Le Pen won more than 40 percent of the vote.

FN’s ratings have been rising since the attacks.

Even if the FN has failed to win overall control of a region – just as it had failed to win overall control of any smaller local départementsearlier this year – its broad trajectory is on the up.

This made it impossible for FN candidates to win, not least of all Ms Pen, whose region includes the port of Calais, where up to 5,000 migrants are now sleeping rough as they try to get to Britain. “The danger posed by the far-right has not gone away, far from it. I won’t forget the results of the first round and of previous elections”. The group, which has campaigned to stop immigration, slash benefits to non-citizens and restrict France’s ties to the European Union, has already shifted France’s debate around immigration, pushing mainstream leaders to take a harder line against refugees and non-citizens.

Mr Valls said voters “responded to the very clear, very courageous appeal of the left to block the path of the extreme right, which won no region”.