Global carbon emissions could fall in 2015

The University of East Anglia and the Global Carbon Project research reveals that emissions could decline by 0.6 per cent this year.

The report shows that China remains the largest emitter with 9.7 billion tonnes, followed by the U.S. (5.6), the European Union (3.4) and India (2.6) – together accounting for nearly 60 % of global emissions.

The study, led by William Kolby Smith, a postdoctoral fellow at the Luc Hoffmann Institute who worked with the Global Landscapes Initiative and the Natural Capital Project, found that while plant growth has increased over the last 30 years, the growth isn’t as much as scientists would have expected, considering the increase in Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere.

China is now recovering from a slow economic growth that can be attributed to this decrease in coal related emissions however for India, the nation is planning to double its coal burning output to supply power where carbon emissions growth will likely resume to increase in the next few years.

That makes action aimed at curbing emissions “all the more urgent”, he says. The actual decline could be as deep as 1.6 per cent, or there could be small rise of 0.5 per cent. This comes amid a continuing trend of less emissions per unit of GDP.

Yet the current emissions path is not consistent with stabilising the climate at a level below 2℃ global warming.

The possible decrease in fossil fuel Carbon dioxide emissions in 2015, along with the slight increase in levels in 2014, are contrary to levels posted previously when annual levels rose between 2% and 3% each year, said the researchers.

According to a recent analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2014 witnessed a drop in consumption of coal by coal-intensive industries in China such as steel, cement and fertilizer, and as a result, overall coal production and use dropped dramatically.

“It is unlikely that emissions have peaked for good”.

Most estimates of greenhouse gas emissions are now based on calculations of energy use and other proxy data, rather than on-the-ground measurements, leaving a huge margin of error when nations submit their figures to the United Nations.

Although China is only responsible for 27% of global emissions, it has dominated the growth in global emissions since early 2000s.

“A real wild card in future emissions is whether today’s low-income economies lock in a high-carbon development path, or develop clean energy systems from the very beginning with the help of the advanced economies”, commented Jim Williams, director of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project. It is well within the possibilities that growth in coal emissions in China will not resume any time soon, and certainly not at the fast pace of the previous decade.

Other organizations have said that world carbon emissions growth stalled a year ago, after decades of gains.

China announced plans ahead of the Paris talks to launch its first emissions-monitoring satellites next year.

The difference between China then and India now is that renewable technology costs have plunged and climate change has become a more urgent issue globally.