Global carbon emissions to break rapid growth in 2015

While carbon dioxide emissions have slowed during times of economic recession, this would be the first decline during a period of strong global economic growth, researchers said. Said Le Quere, “Whether a slower growth in global emissions will be sustained depends on the use of coal in China and elsewhere, and where new energy will come from”.

The findings are a boost for United Nations-led climate talks in Paris, France, that aim to seal a global deal to fight climate change.

The researchers conclude, “Whether the unexpectedly low growth rates in Carbon dioxide emissions observed in 2014 and 2015 are a first sign of an approaching global peak in emissions is unclear”.

A new report from the Global Carbon Project found after growing by less than 1 per cent a year ago, global fossil fuel emissions are expected to stabilize or even decline in 2015. “So there are a few things that indicate emissions to peak around 2030 – but I hope that they’ll be able to peak their emissions even before that, maybe by 2020 if they put appropriate policies in place”.

Dr Canadell put it down to China’s decreased coal consumption, with the nation’s emissions growth slowing to 1.2 per cent in 2014.

Decreased coal use in China-whose carbon dioxide emissions account for almost one-third of global emissions-was largely responsible for the decline in global emissions, the researchers concluded. India also has the third-largest scientific establishment in the world, much of it focused on cracking the nut on its dirty energy dilemma. The latest study was based on energy consumption data from China and the USA, along with forecast economic growth for the rest of the world.

“It could begin to look like a peak in emissions after Paris if the agreement is very strong”.

But what the study does suggest is that the historically reliable link between economic growth and emissions growth, which has existed since the Industrial Revolution two centuries ago, can be broken. “We need to put our foot on the accelerator”. The current decline in emissions comes as the world’s economy has consistently grown more than 3 percent per year since 2012.

Dr Glen Peters, of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, said: “EU emissions went down about 200 million tonnes in 2014, which is about 6 per cent, which is quite impressive”. Reflecting official worries about air pollution and climate change, China has become the world’s leading investor in clean-energy technology, building massive wind and solar energy projects while also continuing to invest in traditional energy sources to fuel its growing economy.

“India’s emissions are now exactly what China’s were in 1990”, Jackson said.

The USA is expected to see a small decline in emissions in 2015 after rises in the two previous years, while the European Union should see another fall – a result that has been consistent for two decades. While it doesn’t sound like much as a percentage, Australia represents just 0.33 percent of the world´s total population – so we’re still punching well above our weight.

Quéré said that China will prove critical if the world is to deliver continued reductions in emissions over the next decade.