Global warming to boost Arctic mosquitoes

When the Arctic warms up, the mosquitoes begin to buzz over the land, according to nationalgeographic. They found that this probability will increase by more than 50 percent if Arctic temperatures rise 2 degrees Celsius.

In this latest study, the researchers predicted the mosquitoes’ probability of surviving and emerging as adults.

The researchers say the climate-population model they developed for Arctic mosquitoes and their predators can be generalized to any ecosystem where survival depends on sensitivities to changing temperatures.

“In response to biting insects, caribou have been observed to run to the top of a windy ridge where there are fewer mosquitoes but their food may be of lower quality”, said ecologist Lauren Culler of Dartmouth College’s Institute of Arctic Studies, who led the study published in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.

They concluded that if Arctic temperatures rise by 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) – a level in the mid-range of predictions by a United Nations panel for Arctic warming this century – mosquitoes would have a 53 percent better chance of maturing to adulthood.

And not only will there be more mosquitoes, they will also tend to come out earlier in warmer springs, according to the research. With summertime hanging around much longer in the Arctic, larger mosquitoes have a longer window of time to breed and prey on the blood of mammals in their habitat.

“Every moment that a caribou spends avoiding insects is another minute that they’re not doing what caribou need to do so that they feed so that they can successfully raise calves”, Culler told VICE early this summer.

More mosquitoes means hard times for caribou. By puncturing the skin, they can also transmit diseases from individual to individual.

It looks like at least one species is benefiting from a warmer Arctic: mosquitoes.

A warming climate has taken its toll on the Arctic’s ice shelves, sea ice, and various wildlife populations, but mosquitoes are thriving.

Caribou numbers in Greenland have crashed from nearly half a million in 1986 to just over 30,000 by 2010, and this mosquito onslaught was probably a major factor in that decline. That will increase the likelihood that the emergence of mosquitos overlaps with the caribou calving season, when the pregnant animals congregate and all give birth together, making an easy target.

Rising mosquito numbers will likely have serious consequences for caribou and reindeer herds, which are one of the main food resources for Arctic communities, the paper says. Their models can be applied to other ecosystems that are sensitive to climate change, the researchers noted.