Groundhog Day 2016: A short history of the weather-predicting rodent tradition

But maybe that’s why we love the Groundhog Day tradition: In the midst of winter, when spring is further away than we’d like it to be, it’s nice to think that an oversized, lowland marmot could somehow summon an early spring. Get a quick lesson in Groundhog Day lore in the video above.

According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow on February 2, the scared groundhog returns to his burrow and the U.S. is in store for six more weeks of winter. Although the myth is greatly dependent on weather conditions, many still gather around Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney to wait for the famous Marmorta monax, as it is scientifically known, to deliver the season’s weather news.

“Is this current warm weather more than a trend?” The problem is that the weather is likely different in those various spots on the chosen day, which means the nation’s residents must go by the “national” groundhog’s prediction, or use their “regional” animal’s prognostication for a forecast closer to home.

Tuesday is Groundhog Day and people in Punksutawney, Pennsylvania and OH are celebrating the annual event.

In New York, Staten Island Chuck agrees with Phil; an early spring is coming. Nine years are missing from the record, but Phil has issued a forecast without exception. To make it even more special, it’s the 130th anniversary of Groundhog Day. But if he doesn’t see his shadow then spring will arrive in six weeks. If Phil wakes and finds himself shadowless, he takes it as a sign of an early spring and stays above ground.

In a tradition that began 1886, Phil predicts the weather for the nation, in accordance with German folklore. Rivals such as Staten Island Chuck and Gen. Beauregard Lee have tried to undermine his fame, but Phil has maintained his cultural significance. Statistics show Phil’s prediction skills are rather iffy: Since 1988, Phil’s prediction was correct 13 times and incorrect 15 times. You could hardly fault him for a melancholic attitude in 2014, when he was expected to perform his duties after falling from de Blasio’s gloved hands.