Joaquin becomes Category 1 hurricane

There is a good deal of uncertainty pertaining to the exact track of Joaquin, which now possesses maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour and is forecast to strengthen. However, it is too early to say where the storm may strike, and scenarios in which the storm turns out to sea are still very much in play.

Finally, several models forecast the storm to track inland just west of the Chesapeake Bay. · Prepare an emergency phone list of people and organizations that may need to be called, including schools, doctors, child/senior care providers, and insurance agents.

Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, according to the service.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island. The Hurricane Center says additional strengthening is expected over the next two days.

While rain will already soak the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast most of Wednesday, Joaquin is expected to hit the USA beginning with the Carolinas on Sunday into Monday and make its way up the coast.

However, there is a prominent dissenter among the computer models.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the southeastern Bahamas beginning tonight.

The National Weather Service will continue to issue updates as the forecast develops.

Meteorologists are using a technique called ensemble modeling to get an idea of how much spread there is in model projections, and where the most agreement lies. Another possible round of rain this weekend from Hurricane Joaquin will increase the potential for widespread flash flooding and minor coastal flooding. This is now the third hurricane of the Atlantic season.

The storm currently moving through the State will bring at least 3-6 inches of rain through Thursday for many parts of the State, with the heaviest rainfall bands moving now from the southern Adirondacks to the Capital District, and east to the northern Taconics. It will be propelled in that direction by high pressure parked offshore, and a dip in the jet stream over the eastern seaboard. It will be as if a garden hose has been pointed at the East Coast, from Charlotte, North Carolina to Portland, Maine. Rain is in the local forecast from Friday through Tuesday. No matter which path Joaquin takes though the region is still likely to receive a significant amount of rainfall. No matter what, expect a few more tropical moisture to be thrown our way.