Joaquin Becomes Category 3 ‘Major Hurricane’

The National Hurricane Center forecast shows Joaquin abruptly turning north due to getting caught in the strong steering winds of the atmosphere.

After Hurricane Joaquin reaches the Bahama’s its path is unclear.

The storm was predicted to turn to the north and northwest toward the United States on Friday, but forecasters were trying to determine how it might affect the U.S. East Coast, which was already suffering flooding and heavy rains from separate storms. In anticipation of Joaquin, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie Thursday issued a state of emergency.

In its 11 a.m. update, the official forecast track from the hurricane center remained just off of the East Coast, with areas from North Carolina to New York City in the cone of uncertainty and at risk for landfall.

SHORT IMPACT / FORECAST CONFIDENCE DISCUSSION: As of Thursday night, there is a very low chance that Joaquin will directly impact southeastern North Carolina.

But the most destructive weather pattern so far this year was Tropical Storm Erika, which killed around 30 people and caused extensive damage in August on the small Caribbean island of Dominica.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay and San Salvador; and the Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. Winds and heavy rain related to the storm moved into areas of the eastern US south of Pennsylvania on Thursday night, according to the NWS.

Joaquin is the third hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season and the first Category 4 storm. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.

Joaquin strengthened over the Bahamas into a powerful Category 4 storm with 130 miles per hour winds Thursday, and computer models over the past two days have switched back and forth, sometimes showing it blowing ashore along the East Coast, sometimes showing it peeling out to sea. “The range of possible outcomes is still large and includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the Carolinas”, the center said. But models predict that the storm may be pushed out to sea by the time it hits D.C. on Sunday and Monday.

Naples Herald will continue to monitor Joaquin and will report new information as it becomes available.