Kerry stands by Saudis while urging diplomacy with Iran

For years, China’s non-interference policy regarding Middle East issues, though appreciated by the Arab world, have been criticized by some Westerners as an excuse for “staying aloof” the hotspot region.

To understand, however, why the Saudis chose to go on the offensive now, a brief review of the development of events between Tehran and Riyadh, as well as Riyadh and Washington, is warranted. According to Chebib, “Intensified crisis between the two countries could trouble investors, since most Saudi oil production comes from its Eastern Province, dominated by Shiites”.

Kudos to Michael Hinojosa, whose January 11 letter pointed out that Saudi Arabia is the United States’ real enemy.

Iran is waiting for the lifting of sanctions, expected sometime in 2016, to pump more oil to improve its economy, whereas the Saudi’s are losing their burning through their cash reserves quickly.

The U.S. has modestly expanded sanctions on Hezbollah, but hasn’t followed through on pledges to impose penalties after a recent ballistic missile test by Iran that violated a U.N. Security Council ban. “The Saudi press at the moment is constantly writing that Iran is moving towards moderating its position, and there is talk in Iranian society that a conflict with Saudi Arabia would be a mistake”.

A Chinese president has not visited Saudi Arabia since 2009 when Hu Jintao went, and Jiang Zemin was the last Chinese president to visit Iran, going in 2002.

Turkey recently made the appearance of making well with Israel over their mutual row from the Israel Defense Forces 2010 Gaza flotilla interception, Turkey being aligned with the Saudis against Iran as of late as well.

As a country that has primarily relied on the US for protection, with which it has developed close and binding relations, Saudi Arabia felt all along that it could count on the U.S.to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

As a result, even though it remains a remote possibility, direct military confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran could well put oil back into triple-digit territory in short order. Barring such an outcome – which Russian is unlikely to deliver – the Geneva talks will be blocked and Saudi Arabia and Turkey will proceed to bleed Russia and Iran in an endless proxy war in Syria.?

We are both committed to this relationship and we’re both committed to working to broaden and deepen it in all spheres, and we are both committed to dealing with the challenges that our region faces in a way that preserves the interests of our two great nations and contributes to the prosperity, well-being, safety, and security of our respective citizens.

But what if the current “Cold War” between Saudi Arabia and Iran turned hot?

The ransacking and torching of the Saudi embassy in Tehran by a mob of violent demonstrators created a window of opportunity for the Saudis to realise their objectives. They are intent on derailing Moscow’s efforts to shape its outcome in Assad’s favor by blocking the participation of armed Islamist groups like Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam whose leader Zahran Alloush, a Saudi ally, was killed in an air strike on December 25.

Akhmedov noted that even a non-military escalation of the conflict would be detrimental to the two sides.

This week a Chinese diplomat urged “calm and restraint” between Saudi Arabia and Iran, but Xi’s trip was most probably organised before the discord erupted between Riyadh and Tehran, Zhu said.

At the same time, the USA has expanded outreach efforts to Iran.

Also unclear is how much the listing could be worth.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has anointed Dore Gold, the director-general of the foreign ministry to lead outreach, to take advantage of the Gulf’s disdain towards Tehran, just weeks after the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Iran was attacked by extremists.

“Arab countries as a whole have become China’s biggest supplier of crude oil and the 7th biggest trading partner”, the paper notes, arguing that China has traded with the Middle East for millennia and “both sides have always respected and treated each other as equals and remained brothers, friends and partners no matter what happens on the world arena”. “In the Arab states of the Persian Gulf there are Shiite minorities who could be at risk, and in Iran, conversely, the Arab minority could be under threat”.