Modi’s Victory and the BJP’s Future

ONE television channel calls it a TsuNaMo.

The historic victory in Uttar Pradesh, wherein the BJP won more than 320 assembly seats, would propel the developmental agenda of the prime minister, many of those celebrating the win said.

It seems hard to find a counterpoint in Uttar Pradesh, a state where the BJP has won a massive and, more importantly, a decisive victory by bagging close to 80 per cent of the 403 Assembly seats.

The Prime Minister said that a new India was rising.

The opposition Congress and other rivals of the BJP hoped that the voters would punish Modi’s government for its decision to demonetise the country’s highest-value currency bills last November, which brought vast economic hardships, especially to the poor. From one end of the Britain-sized state to another, voters proudly declared confidence that Modi-ji is the man to sort out India’s myriad woes. Home to 220 million people, Uttar Pradesh boasts a population larger than those of Germany and France combined.

Among the funds at new highs: the iShares MSCI India exchange-traded fund (INDA) was up 2.5% in recent trading and the Columbia India Consumer ETF (INCO) was up 2.4%. According to Bharat Pandya, state BJP spokesperson, “While Narendra Modi can create the environment and give ideas, Amit Shah can organise the things”. The Uttar Pradesh parliament nominates 13% of the upper house’s total members, which will allow the BJP to substantially increase its upper house seats in the coming years. Same is the case with Punjab, Adam Ziegfeld, Assistant Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University said.

Low-caste leader Mayawati, whose Bahujan Samaj Party was in third place in Uttar Pradesh, said the results were “shocking” and asked the election commission to investigate the possibility voting machines had been tampered with. Neither disdained to follow the example set in 2015 in the neighbouring state of Bihar, where rival local groups successfully joined in a coalition to trounce the BJP.

The BJP has a long affiliation with Hindu nationalist movements, but the latest state elections cut across class and religious lines, upending the entrenched bloc-voting patterns that had been key to party mobilization of supporters in previous polls.

For many this is good news.

Indian markets were closed on Monday for a holiday.

The BJP is going to be in power in India over the long haul, which means Pakistan should think seriously about patching ties with it unless it wants to hurt its biggest-ever economic undertaking, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Perhaps most obviously, it is discomforting to UP’s 40m Muslims. They complement each other. Youth in particular are exhausted of the old idioms, and the old style of politics. Rahul Gandhi’s political obituary has been written in these UP elections and time ripe for him to retire from politics.

Congress MP from Manipur Thokchom Meinya, meanwhile, used his turn to speak on the demands for grant for the Railway Ministry to raise the issue of BJP forming government in Manipur, with Congress, which was the single largest party, being overlooked.