New Afghan Taliban chief keeps hope alive for Pakistan-brokered — News analysis

Manan said: “We have not declared allegiance to anyone and will never do it because of the differences over the new leader”.

“Jalaluddin Haqqani is dead”.

The statement quoted Jalaluddin Haqqani, the head of the Haqqani Network, a Pakistan-based outfit blamed for scores of complex attacks on U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation forces in Afghanistan, as calling for unity. The biggest question haunting the strategists is whether the movement would survive as a cohesive force, or splinter out around at least half a dozen second tier leaders vying for power. Third, Mansoor was well aware that he had been accused over the years of cliquishness and that, therefore, he had to give his leadership team a broader base than some of his previous appointments. The next round of talks about a possible cease-fire was postponed at the request of the Taliban, the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said.

“The enemy with their talk of peace is trying by this propaganda to weaken the jihad”, a voice introduced as Akhtar Mohammad Mansour said in a speech on the Taliban Web site on Saturday. Haqqani’s son Sirajuddin was named Mullah Mansoor’s deputy after his promotion. Abdul Qayum Zakir leads one group. The second group is gravitated around Muhammad Rasool, who was very close to Omar and served as the Nimroz province governor during the Taliban regime.

Meanwhile, efforts by the Afghan government to start peace talks with the insurgency did nothing to allay rising tensions within the movement. Eventually, Mullah Omar’s eldest son Yaqoob may also choose to lead his own group.

Mullah Omar has long been a mysterious and iconic figure throughout the region, evading capture or assassination when many other Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders have fallen. However, while serving as acting chief, Mansoor has been facing opposition because of his decisions.

Divisions within the core Taliban leadership are widening over the process by which Mansoor was elected. A statement did not say where, when or how he died. Mansour, Omar’s deputy, was elected successor. But now, the Taliban have an incentive to talk that didn’t exist before the rise of Islamic State.

Mojda said that most Taliban members understood the need to hide Omar’s death for the sake of their cause and did not hold it against Mansour or his backers in the Taliban national council, but sources in Pakistan said the rank and file Taliban, especially those in the battlefield, had been increasingly concerned and suspicious about his prolonged absence. The first round in Murree didn’t include the representatives from the Qatar office.

The comments were made as Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani’s administration had said face-to-face talks with Taliban members in Pakistan in early July ended with optimism. “He told his people not to listen to Mansour, and that the Amir is dead”, a senior Afghan official said. It was the entity that least wants the peace process to be sabotaged – the Afghan government – that broke the news. His death was confirmed by the Taliban on Thursday.

Why would the Afghan government make this announcement now? “No matter who is in charge of the Taliban in Afghanistan, they will have no choice but to have a good relationship with the Pakistani state”.

Omar’s fate had been unknown until last week, when the Afghan government announced that he had died more than two years ago in a Pakistani hospital. “This is all our responsibility to carry on jihad until we establish the Islamic state”.

However, even assuming the possibility that a Pakistani spoiler – or any spoiler – presented this information to the Afghan government, Kabul would presumably have sat on it and not rushed to reveal it at such a delicate moment in the peace process.

Both Nawaz and Walding agree that the Taliban needs structure.

And to the surprise of everyone, the majority of moderate Taliban appear unwilling to do the peace dance.