New CFP Rankings Set Up Exciting, Possibly Absurd Final Saturday of College

CFP committee chairman Jeff Long revealed during a Sunday night conference call that at one point, he thought No. 5 Michigan State would jump over unbeaten No. 4 Iowa in the rankings.

Brian Kelly ‘s math suggests that 10 wins plus two more plays would have equaled 12-0, which would have equaled a No. 1 ranking and a spot in the College Football Playoff for Notre Dame.

Even after a 52-31 loss at Houston, Navy (9-2) remained ranked as it slid from No. 15 to No. 23 and Houston (11-1) took over No. 19, ahead of its conference championship game set for Saturday in Houston against No. 22 Temple (10-2). Both the Tigers (12-0) and Crimson Tide (11-1) head into their conference championship games Saturday needing just a victory to lock up a playoff spot. The schedule for the College Football Playoff will be on New Year’s Eve and the semifinal games will be the Cotton Bowl and the Capital One Orange Bowl. The championship game will be January 11 at Glendale, Ariz.

That’s not to say it shouldn’t change drastically if North Carolina beats Clemson, but right now, it makes sense.

Long acknowledged the Tar Heels’ improving credentials and 10-game win streak, but made clear that their season-opening loss to what turned out to be a 3-9 SC team is weighing them down. Oklahoma is their UNDISPUTED conference champion, and they ran the gauntlet of all gauntlets, beating Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State in their last 3 games, which equated to a CFP Knockout game each week.

Even in a season of college football anarchy, with each week more unpredictable than the last, a Florida win against Alabama would likely serve as the largest upset of the regular season – particularly given the stakes at play, with a win sending Alabama back to the national semifinals for the second year in a row. Alabama has zero excuses if it loses to Florida in the SEC Championship Game. The Gators fell six slots to No. 18 after a woeful performance against in-state rival Florida State.

The only concern for Notre Dame here is if Clemson loses its playoff spot and the selection committee tabs Stanford instead of Ohio State to replace the Tigers.

#1 Clemson (-5) vs. #6 North Carolina – Either way, I expect this game to turn into a blowout. However, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which one of the other contenders (Ohio State, Stanford or North Carolina) would rise high enough to knock Oklahoma from the playoffs.

The Rose Bowl will take a Big Ten team to play the victor of the Pac-12 Championship (barring a string of massive upsets that get Stanford into the playoff), while the Sugar Bowl is an SEC-Big 12 matchup.

“Oklahoma’s resume is deep with four top 25 victories in our current rankings”, Long said, “and then three other wins over teams with winning records”. Alabama is the better team, and if not for five turnovers against Ole Miss it would be undefeated and ranked No. 1 like it was a year ago.

It’s worth asking: Could Clemson get in with a loss? Behind the Cardinal is OR at No. 16, USC at No. 20, and Utah.

Not considered one of the best games of the week, but entertaining to watch, was the Alabama vs. Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Great idea, if the playing field is level for all teams.