NOAA: Higher chance of below-normal storm season

Three tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic this year.

Hurricane season runs from the end of May until the end of November and peaks around September 10.

The likelihood of a below normal hurricane season is even higher than when it was first predicted in May.

“Tropical storms and hurricanes can and do strike the United States, even in below-normal seasons and during El Niño events”, Bell said.

Klotzbach cautioned coastal residents to take the proper precautions, regardless of the below-average basin-wide forecast.

Keim says El Niño has been stronger than expected, leading to conditions over the Atlantic that aren’t favorable to storm formation.

In fact, this year’s conditions “should combine to produce one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1950”, according to a report from Colorado State University researchers in the third update to their initial April prediction.

A strong El Nino and below average ocean water temperatures are among the reasons NOAA cited. “In addition, vertical wind shear during July was at record high levels in the Caribbean”, Klotzbach and Gray explain.

So far, the 2015 season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 1965, 1972, 1982, 1987 and 1997 hurricane seasons, all of which had below-normal activity, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the report. Hence it’s important to keep abreast of the latest outlook from the likes of Colorado State. By comparison, 2014’s tropical cyclone activity was about 75 percent of the average season. The National Hurricane Center gives a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours for a system that is now located near the South Carolina coast. As we move through August things begin to change in the development region of the tropics.