Oil prices edge higher in quiet holiday trade

International Brent crude oil futures fell 13 cents to $48.99 a barrel at 0657 GMT after climbing to $49.42 a barrel earlier in Wednesday’s session on optimism OPEC would agree to an output cut. Iran has sought special treatment since it’s newly free of Global sanctions, while Iraq has contested OPEC’s production estimates that would form the basis for the accord.

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet next week on November 30 in Vienna to decide on the details of an agreement to cut output that the group has been trying to hammer out since September.

Prices found some support after the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a larger-than-expected U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week. Internationally favored February Brent Crude Oil finished at $50.00, down $0.11 or -0.22%.

The results of Tuesday’s talks will be presented to ministers next week, Libya’s OPEC Governor Mohamed Oun said, declining to comment on whether Iran and Iraq are willing to limit output.

Moreover, the strong dollar weighs on oil prices.

Olivier Jakob, managing director of Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix, said Iran is one of the members of OPEC least exposed to the pressure from lower crude oil prices because of the economic adjustments it made under sanctions pressure.

Opec experts discussing how to implement a plan to cut oil output are likely to reach agreement later on Tuesday, a Nigerian delegate said, a possible sign of progress in finalising the group’s first supply-limiting deal since 2008.

Iraq had previously resisted calls from fellow members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to curb output, citing the urgency of its offensive against Islamic State. “We have talks with these companies, complicated talks, and we cut the finance of unnecessary spending programs” while supporting the continuity of funding necessary to raise oil output, he said.

January U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil closed at $47.94, down $0.09 or -0.19%.

“The odds of OPEC getting a deal done continue to rise but the risks remain palpable”, analysts at Citigroup wrote in a note to clients. While Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told Al Arabiya television he’s optimistic a deal will be reached, only seven of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg last week expect the group to set output targets for its members.

The oil minister of Azerbaijan, which is not a member of OPEC, was quoted in a newspaper as saying the cartel may want non-OPEC producers to cut output by as much as 880,000 barrels per day (bpd).