Paris attack will ‘probably help’ Le Pen in France

His bet on Trump during the campaign hasn’t paid off for him (so far). The question is, if Melenchon is the second man, is Le Pen the first woman? No matter who’s president, they won’t be able to move controversial proposals through the government if their party lacks support in the parliament.

Le Pen has also echoed some of Trump’s hard-line rhetoric on immigration, calling for hardening French borders to stanch what she describes as an out-of-control flow of immigrants.

It was unclear whether the attack would tip the balance of the vote in favour of Le Pen, who has vowed to take a tough line on “Islamic terrorism”.

Polling stations opened Saturday in France’s far-flung overseas territories – one day earlier than on the mainland – for the country’s unpredictable presidential election as the 11 candidates in the race observed a ban on campaigning.

Trump, who enjoyed breaking with political convention on his way to the White House, likes ruffling political feathers, and also enjoys predicting further political earthquakes around the globe that echo his shock November win.

“The main message I have is to wish you all the best in the coming days, and make sure that as you said that you work hard all the way through”, said former President Barack Obama on Thursday in a phone call to the progressive French presidential contender. “I’m voting for the candidate who’ll keep us safe”. In 2015, it expelled Jean-Marie Le Pen, the party’s leader for three decades and father of Marine Le Pen for Holocaust denial. It’s been rough sledding lately, though, with the poor performance of Geert Wilders’s party in the Dutch elections last month and the decline of the AfD in Germany, which has been tanking in recent polls.

Newsweek found many voters saying in the run-up to Sunday’s election that they were leaning towards Le Pen – which would parallel the surge for Trump past year among undecided voters and supporters who chose to lay low. Errrrrr, no one knows.

In an Elabe poll conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, and published on Friday, both Fillon and Melenchon were seen narrowing Macron and Le Pen’s lead.

Additionally, the latest Harris poll has her losing the May 7 runoff by 34 points to Macron, and by a narrower 59 percent to 41 percent to Fillon.

The former child illegal immigrants, known as “dreamers”, were given deportation deferrals under former president Barack Obama’s Daca (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) executive order but many have anxious that they could be targeted by the current administration’s threatened crackdown on immigration. Put all of that together and there’s no telling, really, who’s winning.

On the other hand, neither Mr. Macron nor Ms. Le Pen is the candidate of France’s hitherto strongest, traditional parties, the Socialists and the re-named Republicans.

He’s now the favourite to win the presidency outright but there are some things going against him. There’s serious backlash potential to his warm words for Le Pen – if the French get to hear about it. The failure of Mr Fillon to account for the public money paid to his family would, it is to be hoped, have sunk a candidate for high office in the United Kingdom, but 20 per cent of French voters at least seem to take a more indulgent view.