Perils on the path to power for Myanmar’s Suu Kyi

The Parliament that began its new session Monday is still dominated by legislators from the Union Solidarity Development Party, which was trounced by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy in the November 8 elections.

“We will hand this process (of reform) on to a new government”, he said, adding “don’t worry about the transition” in comments aimed at calming nerves in the country’s first attempt at a democratic-style transition for decades.

The term of the current government will expire at the end of March 2016. The concern of the generals is not Suu Kyi and the NLD leadership, but working people and their raised expectations of greater democratic rights and improved living standards following the election.

The NLD’s triumph was significant in that the people of Myanmar had spoken freely for the first time in 25 years.

The ultimate goal for democracy advocates is to amend the constitution, in part to allow Ms Suu Kyi to assume the presidency that she so clearly has earned.

Winning Myanmar’s election turned out to be easier than expected for Aung San Suu Kyi and her opposition party, but steering the country will be a test of how the Nobel Peace laureate balances her moral vision with political realities.

Thein Sein gained praise from a few of the leaders for his government’s holding a transparent, free and honest election, and accepting the results with grace.

The military has already said it will abide by the election result.

On the eve of what could be the last session of the current parliament, lower house chairman Shwe Mann, who lost his seat in the November 8 vote and was ousted in August as head of the ruling party, said Suu Kyi had sought help in the transition period.

Although the NLD is set to occupy much of parliament, the armed forces will continue to wield considerable power.

The two leaders would not want to discuss or compromise on issues such as elimination of the quota of 25 per cent of seats reserved for the military in all legislatures, and the dominant role of the military in the powerful National Defence and Security Council.

The stunning comeback for Ms Suu Kyi, who was robbed of a similar win in 1990 and, subsequently, subjected to 15 years of imprisonment and harsh crackdowns on her party by the country’s military rulers, has evoked relief and satisfaction in a naturally sympathetic India.

But also crushed in the rout were dozens of parties representing ethnic minorities, who make up less than half the country’s 51.5 million population, and who have a long history of antagonism and insurgency against the military junta that ruled Myanmar for half a century. Myanmar’s population is made up of 135 ethnic groups.

Richard Horsey, a leading analyst of Myanmar politics, wrote before the election that the creation of a functioning government – one that could tackle the country’s most intractable problems – would ultimately hang on the relationship between the NLD-nominated president and the commander-in-chief. But the election has shown that while the old elite can still control the pace of reforms, they stand in the way of an overwhelming national momentum for change.