Playoff Simulation predicts Oklahoma over Clemson in title matchup

Many people already have the thought that Michigan State should be ahead of Iowa due to their schedule but the Hawkeyes haven’t lost a game yet and shouldn’t be downgraded because of that fact. Should the Hawkeyes beat Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game Saturday, they are virtually assured a spot in the College Football Playoff (read that sentence again…we’ll wait).

Beating back the Tar Heels likely guarantees Clemson a place in the final four.

The seeding is about as uncertain as it could be at this time, as Long said there were deliberations atop the poll with unbeaten Clemson and one-loss SEC champ Alabama, both of which play in conference title games on Saturday.

The top four remained the same from last week, with Alabama at No. 2, Oklahoma at No. 3 and Iowa at No. 4.

And depending on how each of those games pans out, the final CFP rankings could look drastically different by season’s end. The next week, as writers and SIDs scrambled to match the Playoff Committee, just one team stayed in the same position in the AP and the Coaches Poll (though not the same team, oddly enough, because writers suddenly discovered that Clemson was good before the SIDs did). Ohio State’s lone, marquee victory came last week against MI. The Irish dropped from fourth to eighth; Florida State and North Carolina moved up to Nos.

For example, if UNC beats Clemson and Alabama beats Florida, then the final four would probably be Alabama, Iowa or Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Ohio State.

A 5-7 team going to a bowl is painful to everyone, especially the team. The Buckeyes will need either Clemson or second-ranked Alabama to slip up and then get a sympathy vote from the committee due to the Big Ten being 2015’s top league.

The Rose Bowl will take a Big Ten team to play the victor of the Pac-12 Championship (barring a string of massive upsets that get Stanford into the playoff), while the Sugar Bowl is an SEC-Big 12 matchup.

PredictionMachine.com has crunched the data for 50,000 computer simulations of the most likely teams in the four-team college football playoff (Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Iowa). Stanford has beaten two ranked teams in No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 20 Southern California. The Gators fell six slots to No. 18 after a woeful performance against in-state rival Florida State. The Seminoles could face Houston or Notre Dame or loser of Big Ten title game. No other Playoff contender can match that, barring a Michigan State win over Iowa this weekend. “The No. 1 team will determine where we go”, he said. The Cardinal needs victories from North Carolina and Florida. The Buckeyes best win is at No. 15 MI. While the latter scenario is possible and as much as I’d love to see someone get upset Saturday, More has to go right for Carolina to pull off the upset and Clemson seems to have its special season in full force. Coming off a win over Notre Dame, Stanford would make a strong case for the CFP with a conference title victory over a revitalized USC team.