Polls: Donald Trump leads, Ben Carson slips

Mitt Romney has said consistently that he’s not a candidate for president in 2016, and he certainly won’t be in New Hampshire next February, as the deadline for all candidates to file for next winter’s presidential primary expired on Friday. Additionally, while these online polls have been largely consistent with the more traditional polls released around the same time, they have tended to show Trump and Carson doing better than the more traditional polling.

With Romney, the party’s 2012 presidential nominee, out of the picture, Trump continues to dominate.

Meanwhile, ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, all far behind in the polls, are increasingly centering their campaigns on New Hampshire.

“By mainstreaming Islamophobic and unconstitutional policies, Donald Trump and Ben Carson are contributing to an already toxic environment that may be hard to correct once their political ambitions have been satisfied”, said CAIR Government Affairs Manager Robert McCaw, according to a news release.

In a YouGov/CBS News poll last month, Trump and Carson were tied with 27% support each among voters in the Hawkeye State. Ted Cruz and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. The poll was conducted November 5-14 of 624 Utahns and has a margin of error of plus or minus just under 4 percent. Fox’s poll also put Sens.

The polling comes about 2 1/2 months ahead of the first voting in Republican and Democratic party contests in the central farm state of Iowa and the rural northeastern state of New Hampshire, followed by voting in numerous other states. In New Hampshire, Trump has led by double digits in almost every poll. Paul also is below the necessary level in Iowa and nationally.

Still, the New Hampshire primary remains in flux, with 18 percent undecided on whom they would vote for. If Romney were in the field – having missed the filing deadline he could now participate only as a write-in candidate – roughly one in three voters would abandon their current choice to follow him. Neither one of them will count toward determining eligibility for the next debate. Several candidates quickly lashed out at the proposal and it didn’t take long for the Trump campaign to clarify his ideas.

But he has trailed in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire for the entire campaign so far, and must win over Republican voters who may be wary of embracing the baby-faced junior senator from Florida.

When asked to name the most important issue facing the country right now, 42 percent said terrorism and national security ranked highest.

This does not appear likely to have much effect on preferences in the race for the GOP nomination, however, with one in four saying that Trump was the “best equipped” to handle the American response to the Islamic State.

Rubio’s response: “Yes, I believe the world is a safer – no, I don’t believe, I know – the world is a safer and better place when America is the strongest military power in the world”.

The second key factor is whether key Republican officials take aggressive steps to steer the the GOP rank and file away from Trump, even before voting starts.