Pro-China party likely to lose in Taiwan’s election

Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen (L) attends an election rally in New Taipei City, January 15, 2016.

Tsai risks antagonizing China if she attempts to forcefully assert Taiwan’s sovereignty and reverses eight years of warming China ties under incumbent China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou of the Nationalists, who ruled all of China until the retreat to Taiwan in 1949.

Tsai’s Nationalist opponent, Eric Chu, was a late entry in the race after the party ditched its original candidate, Hung Hsiu-chu, whose abrasive style was seen as alienating voters.

While the worldwide community is busily assessing the impact a DPP government will have on stability in the region, the election campaign was dominated not by cross-strait relations but by issues such as affordable housing and pension reform.

“I voted for the DPP because I am very afraid Taiwan will become just like Hong Kong”, said 29 year-old Alice Huang.

The will of the Taiwanese people would be the basis for relations with China’s Ms Tsai said, urging both sides to show “dignity and reciprocity” in their relations.

However, DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen’s approval ratings rose the day after the presidential meeting in Singapore, leading many to predict that the island’s voters are too deeply anxious by the prospect of closer ties with the mainland to vote KMT on Saturday. DPP is also looking to win a majority in Parliament in the concurrent legislative elections to deal the ruling Kuomingtang (KMT) a double blow.

Many of Taiwan’s 23 million residents identify as Taiwanese rather than Chinese, and there is broad political support for de facto self-rule, if not formal independence.

The DPP has a much warier approach to China, although Tsai has repeatedly said she wants to maintain the “status quo”.

The legislature election is being held simultaneously in Taiwan.

It is a process that really got underway after Taiwan became a democracy, and that has accelerated as ties with China have blossomed under Ma’s presidency.

“She knows that we need to keep a good relationship with China”, said Ken Hsui, the managing director of Taiwan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

But dig a little deeper, and this is a vote that sees Taiwan finding its feet after two decades as a democracy, starting to reimagine itself as a nation quite separate from its communist big brother across the Taiwan Strait. “We are only one step away from a new era”.

China has largely declined to comment on the polls, although its chief official for Taiwan affairs this month warned of potential major challenges in the relationship in the year ahead.

Wu said that the KMT is the wealthiest political party in the world.

But many voters feel the economy is still struggling, a sentiment Ms Tsai hopes to capitalise on.

Chu, 54, won a seat to the legislature in 1998, then was elected twice as head of Taoyuan county south of the capital Taipei.