Rain, Storms, and Cooler Weather

Reconnaissance data indicates that Harvey has maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and is moving towards the NW at 9 miles per hour. According to the National Hurricane Center, Harvey is producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the west-central Caribbean Sea. The system could bring a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and possible flooding to south Louisiana later this week.

Heat takes a back seat: With mostly cloudy conditions expected for the second half of the week, highs will only reach the upper 80s and low 90s, which means heat index values will tend to stay shy of 100 degrees.

A wave of low pressure is moving across the southeastern Bahamas Monday afternoon. The storm is expected to move northwest in the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall on the central Texas coastline.

A tropical wave hovering over South Florida is expected to continue drenching the region, Miami meteorologists with the National Weather Service said early Wednesday. “Tropical Storm Cindy from earlier this year taught us that even weaker systems can still bring a formidably torrential downpours that lead to flooding issues”.

Erickson said the storm’s winds should weaken on landfall, with tornadoes being a smaller threat. “Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development by the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic”, the NHC said. “Southern Louisiana may pick up 10-15″ of rainfall wile the rest of Louisiana and central/southern MS may see 3-7”.

High pressure over the Western US, another area over the Central and Eastern Gulf, plus a stalled front in Texas will slow Harvey to a near stand still, now forecast over South Texas. The rain potential is what we’ll be watching the closest.

Forecasters say it appears the system will head for the Texas coast by tomorrow, but stall out there and dump lots of rain.

While there is no apparent low-level circulation showing up on satellite, hurricane hunter aircraft confirm there is more organization to Harvey than just 12 hours ago.