Retail holiday sales not expected to be as high as 2014

The NRF also said it expects online sales to rise between 6 and 8 percent, to as much as $105 billion.

Despite the year-over-year slowdown, the increase is greater than the 10-year average of 2.5% growth and exceeds the 2.7% increase seen in both 2013 and 2012.

“Similar to a year ago in the sense we’re coming off a rather disappointing first half, this holiday season brings to light several crosscurrents that still exist for American households”, said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.

US holiday season sales will increase by 3.7 percent in 2015, marking slightly slower growth than past year as consumers fret about a potential government shutdown and sluggish income growth, the leading retail industry group said on Thursday.

Other organizations have forecast slower growth for this year’s holiday season, which reflects the concerns about the impact of wage growth and the turmoil now in world’s financial markets.

So a PwC survey says people who make over $50,000 a year plan to spend $1,331 bucks buying holiday gifts, that’s more than last year.

The overall holiday estimate includes online sales but excludes sales from autos, gas and restaurants.

“With several months of solid retail sales behind us, we’re heading into the all-important holiday season fully expecting to see healthy growth,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO, NRF.

The NRF figure shows a few insight into consumers’ mindset as their spending represents about 70% of the entire economic activity for the nation. But Americans, he said, “remain somewhat torn between their desire and ability to spend”. Hourly wages are up 2.2 percent in the past year and haven’t kept up with higher daily costs.

Stores are also grappling with shoppers’ shift away from clothing and other traditional merchandise and more toward experiences such as spas, concert tickets or big-ticket necessities such as automobiles.

The industry lobby’s forecast is a closely watched benchmark for the upcoming holiday season, when retailers like Macy’s Inc., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. generate an outsized portion of their profits and sales.

The National Retail Federation group said that a slower pace of job growth weighed on the forecast. Accordingly, families are expected to spend “prudently and deliberately”. That compares with 24 percent for older shoppers.