Senator Ted Cruz jumps to the top in Iowa

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has overtaken businessman Donald Trump in the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination in Iowa, a new poll from Monmouth University shows. That is a five-point lead on real estate mogul Donald Trump, who earned 19 percent. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).

Carson – who has been dogged by foreign policy blunders since last month’s terror attacks in Paris thrust national security to the forefront of the GOP campaign debates – is in free-fall. The Iowa caucuses will be held February 1.

Cruz’s advantage includes a lead among Iowa’s sizable evangelical population. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. The first is that point above: He doesn’t seem to have picked up much of Carson’s support. Cruz’s surge has come as Ben Carson has seen his evaporate in recent weeks. Those 30 percent are less likely to actually go out and participate in the caucus, since they haven’t before – and they’re much more likely to back Trump.

“Congressman King’s endorsement may not be the primary reason for this swing, but it certainly put a stamp on the Cruz surge in Iowa”, the pollster added.

The poll was conducted among registered voters, with the bulk of the interviews coming from those who are regular Republican primary voters.

At least part of Cruz’s lead comes from his popularity among evangelical voters and tea party supporters.

Rubio has overtaken Carson as the most popular candidate in the field, boasting a positive favorability rating of 70 percent, against only 16 percent who view him negatively. Women support Rubio (23%) and Cruz (19%) over Carson (15%) and Trump (14%). That is a fairly small sample, and the poll has a large margin-of-error equal to +/- 4.5 percentage points, which means that Trump, Carson, or Rubio could theoretically be in the lead adjusting for the poll’s margin-of-error in their favor.