September home sales down from August

Except where otherwise indicated, CREA data is seasonally adjusted.

The number of newly listed homes retreated 2.1% from August to September.

The total dollar sales volume in the month was just over $2.99 billion – down 9.8% from $3.32 billion in August.

The number of homes trading hands via MLS® Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations fell by 2.1 per cent in September 2015 compared to August.

“Sales are off the peak reached earlier this year, but are still running strong, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario”, CREA president Pauline Aunger said.

Canada-wide, the average residential sales price was $439,822, down 0.8%.

CREA says a sales-to-new listings ratio between 40 and 60 per cent is generally consistent with a balanced market.

However, compared with a year ago, sales of homes through the Multiple Listing Service last month were up 0.7%. Calgary posted the largest annual decline in activity. In September, sales plunged by 34.2 per cent to 1,866 transactions.

“Looking forward, a favourable economic backdrop and balanced market conditions will continue to support a moderate pace of housing activity in most markets across Canada”.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said Canada’s housing market is cooling somewhat. Of the remainder, most over 60% were nearly entirely in British Columbia and around the GTA. He points to increases in Victoria (up 21% year-over-year), London (up 22.9%) and the Niagara region (up 17.5%) as a few examples of areas with higher growth. The recent acceleration in year-over-year growth follows about a year-and-a-half of gains that held steady within a range of between five and five-and-a-half per cent. However, prices were “frothy” in the Vancouver and Toronto markets.

Outside of British Columbia, the greatest prices remain in Toronto, where the average home sale price was $627,502 – nearly 27% lower than in Vancouver. Meanwhile, price gains in the Fraser Valley have accelerated to nearly nine per cent.

It rose 0.6 per cent in September from the previous month, a ninth consecutive monthly increase, but was only up in six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. Prices in Saskatoon and Ottawa also ran roughly even with year-ago levels.

The decline in resales was broad based across all markets, with the exception of Montreal (+1.1%) and Halifax (+39%). Prices fell by four per cent in Regina, extending year-over-year price declines there that began in 2013. However, the average existing home price can be distorted by a shift in the composition of sales – which appears to have been the case in September.

The actual national average price for homes was C$433,649 ($335,486) last month.

“The story for the Greater Vancouver area and Greater Toronto area is that continued strong demand for a limited supply of detached properties is sending prices through the roof as worldwide migrants, young millennials and an apparent influx of foreign wealth flock to these two areas”, Guatieri said. The national aggregate, of 12 markets, was up 6.9 per cent to $504,800.