Singapore GDP Growth Likely To Stay At 1.8% In 2017

USA interest rate-hike expectations have also been pared.

The 22 economists and analysts responding to the MAS poll now expect the local economy to grow 1.8 per cent for all of next year, markedly slower than their median 2.1 per cent forecast made in June. The economists’ forecasts ranged from 1.1 per cent to 2.2 per cent.

She added that any impact on tourist arrivals and the hotel industry from the Zika outbreak may be felt only from September.

“This doesn’t represent an easing at all”, Menon said.

The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters is conducted every quarter after the release of detailed economic data for the preceding three months.

The median forecast for GDP growth in 2016 was unchanged at 1.8 per cent.

For the end of the third quarter, forecasts for the United States dollar/Singapore dollar pair ranged from 1.331-1.40, with a median forecast of 1.37.

The headline consumer inflation rate was seen at minus 0.5% year-on-year in 2016, down from minus 0.4% in the June survey.

“I am thus looking for a stabilisation, rather than strong recovery for manufacturing in H2”, she said. That was offset by expectations the finance and insurance segment would grow 2.0 percent, down from 2.9 percent in the previous survey.

Other sectors expected to register weaker growth were construction (which is projected to go from 3.3 per cent to 3 per cent growth), and accommodation and food services (from 1.8 per cent to 1.4 per cent).

Mr Ng said: “For Singapore, low growth is not necessarily deflationary”.

Singapore’s economic outlook for next year has been pared, according to an official survey of forecasters. “Domestically, the issue of rising business costs also needs to be addressed”.

In the second quarter, inflation fell by 0.9 per cent, compared to the predicted drop of 0.7 per cent.

Core inflation – which excludes accommodation and vehicle prices – is expected to increase by 1 per cent, slightly higher than the 0.8 per cent predicted in the previous survey.

As a result, future output will not get much of a boost and this “puts greater downward pressure on Singapore’s trade and production nexus”, said ANZ economist Weiwen Ng.