Smoking to kill one-third of young Chinese men, says study

It is expected to pass 2 million per year by 2030 without considerable interventions to reduce the smoking rate. Researchers say up to 50 percent of China’a young smokers could die from smoking related diseases in about 15 years if they do not drop the habit. As there are fewer Chinese women smokers, there is less possibility of epidemic spreading among females. The toll will eventually arise to three million by 2050. Study investigators said that most of these men would face premature death unless they give up smoking for good.

The high smoking rates are fueled by low prices.

“Unless they stop, about half of them will eventually be killed by their habit”, said the one of the article’s co-authors, Oxford University’s Zhengming Chen. So far, 1 million of the country’s young men died from smoking and that number may more than double by 2030.

In China the number of smokers has been on the rise ever since the late 1980s, ever since cigarettes became more available to the public.

Smokers have about twice the mortality rate of people who never smoked, with a higher risk of lung cancer, stroke and heart attack. As more Chinese people start to puff at younger ages, researchers expect the proportion of male deaths that are attributed to smoking to increase. In the USA, one in five adult men and one in 6 adult women smoke, and smoking is associated with 20 percent of deaths, a recent CDC report shows.

The results showed annual tobacco deaths in China, mostly for men, topped a million in 2010. In urban areas, where air pollution undoubtedly adds to the problem, the percentage has grown to 25 percent and is believed to be markedly rising. According to a Bloomberg Business feature on the topic, the industry accounts for 7 percent of the country’s revenue each year and employs roughly 500,000 people.

In a comment also carried by The Lancet, Jeffrey Koplan and Michael Eriksen of the Emory Global Health Institute in Atlanta pointed out that China was not only the world’s largest consumer of tobacco, but also the largest grower and cigarette manufacturer.

“The key to avoid this huge wave of deaths is cessation, and if you are a young man, don’t start”, said co-author Richard Peto, from Oxford University. “For China, a substantial increase in cigarette prices could save tens of millions of lives”.

Tax collected from cigarette manufacturers is an important source of income in China.