Some Southeast farmers expect record yields, most don’t

While fewer acres of cotton were planted in Arkansas this year than ever before, agricultural experts are projecting record high yields for what was planted.

They expect Nebraska soybeans in the state to yield higher than last year, at an average of 56 bushels per acre, while total production will be slightly lower at 288 million bushels. Meanwhile, it left unchanged its prior-month estimate for harvested corn acres of 81.1 million.

Production of grain sorghum, which saw the biggest percentage acreage increase of any crop (11 percent) last spring, is expected to reach 572 million bushels, a 24 percent increase from 2014’s 432 million bushels.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on August. 12 forecast U.S. sugar carryover on October 1, 2015, at 1,821,000 short tons, raw value, up 92,000 tons, or 5%, from 1,729,000 tons forecast in July. Illinois, the leading soybean grower, will see a 2.5 per cent drop.

Expectations for the US soybean crop were also revised upward, by 39m bushels to 3.916bn bushels, where markets had expected a sharp downward revision.

“Our feeling is (this crop) is in line pretty similarly to where we were last year, especially on production, and that is what this report says”, Krissek said. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2015-’16 are projected 114 million bushels higher.

Corn yield is down eight percent, and soy bean yield is down four percent. The smaller corn crop was just one of several items of potentially bullish news in the August Production Report.

July’s projection was 1.599 billion bushels.

Soybean futures for November delivery tumbled 6 percent to $9.1325 a bushel, the biggest drop since July 7, 2009.

The key takeaway from the table is the comparison between the USDA’s 2015 yield estimates on Wednesday versus the 4-year averages from the crop years of 2013, 2011, 2010, and 2009 inclusive of each state’s current crop condition rating.

It also raised its wheat ending stocks outlook to 850 million bushels from 842 million, below the average of analysts’ estimates.

It’s corn price forecast ranges from $3.35 to $3.95 a bushel – 10 cents lower at both ends.

For Mexico, the only changes were in forecast domestic sugar use for this year and next year, which in turn lowered ending stocks. That compares to last year’s estimated 171 bushels per acre corn yield.

Grain markets will also get a fresh indication on demand from weekly U.S. export sales due at 1230 GMT.