State official: Don’t count on El Nino droughtbuster

El Nino develops when trade winds typically forcing warm surface water in the Pacific Ocean at the equator to the west toward Australia and Asia cease, bringing the warmer water to the east along the South American coast.

The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration says its already the second strongest El Nino on record. Water temperatures could exceed two degrees Celsius higher than average; that benchmark, for three consecutive months, would classify the current El Nino as “very strong”, and NOAA says there is a 90 percent chance the situation will continue through the winter. “But it’s still just one piece of the puzzle”.

As reported on Daily Voice earlier this month, the conditions in the Pacific Ocean signal a strong El Niño.

In St. Louis the Meteorologist in Charge at the National Weather Service, Wes Browning agrees the El Nino that is forming is historic and he explains what it could mean for Missouri and the rest of the Midwest.

In El Nino years, the tropical jet stream that usually dumps rain on Central America is shifted north. The catch is that it doesn’t always happen.

They’re cautiously optimistic. Ryan Jacobsen, executive director of the Fresno County Farm Bureau, says farmers aren’t fooled by a common misconception that El Nino always translates into a wet winter.

“This El Nino will be a nice down payment on drought relief, but will not be a drought buster”, Patzert predicts.

“While the current message needs to remain to conserve because the deficits are severe, it probably is a good idea to at least allow the potential that when we get to winter, flooding and landslides could occur”, said Halpert. “There are examples from the recent past where El Nino events were drier than average in these places”.

“Right now, it’s too soon to tell which one will win”, Mead said in an email. However, it would not bring enough rain to bring an end to the momentous California drought forecasters said on Thursday. El Nino also will likely contribute to a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season. “Historical weather data shows us that at best, there’s a 50/50 chance of having a wetter winter, Unfortunately, due to shifting climate patterns, we can not even be that sure”.