Study sees possible dip in world CO2 emissions

With energy consumption projected only to rise over the next 15 years, Brookings Senior Fellow Charles Ebinger, in a new brief, examines whether richer countries will agree to assist poorer ones in developing renewable energy sources as a way to avoid the globally harmful temperature increases that will result from the use of cheaper, nonrenewable fossil fuel energy stocks.

Researchers have warned that while their study suggests a possible decline, their projections are estimates and there will always be a range of uncertainty.

The decline was largely attributed to reduced coal use in China – which continued to be the world leader in emissions, responsible for 27 percent of the total – and a faster growth in renewables, with wind and solar capacities achieving record increases in 2014, according to the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change and presented at COP21 in Paris. While advocates of greener living have long touted the economic benefits of replacing outdated fossil fuels with eco-friendly upgrades, the undeniable truth was that higher global emissions were linked to economic growth.

“The decline of 0.6 percent projected for this year, should it come to pass, would be highly unusual at a time when the global economy is growing”, the paper reported, citing information from the Global Carbon Project. While it is encouraging that the carbon emissions appear to have fallen, it will be several more years before this announcement is put into true perspective.

But Lee, attending the United Nations climate summit in Paris, said more work was needed, based on a number of years of observations, to establish a “clear understanding of the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth”.

Mr. Wong’s comparison to the air quality of a coal mine might not be so far off, as much of China’s pollution comes from industrial coal burning.

The report noted that despite swift economic growth in China, its rate of greenhouse gas emissions slowed by 1.2 percent in 2014, and is expected to drop by 3.9 percent in 2014. “In 2014, more than half of new energy needs in China were met from non-fossil fuel sources, such as hydro, nuclear, wind, and solar power”.

Stanford University’s Ken Caldeira expressed even deeper caution: He offered to bet the authors $10,000 that emissions haven’t peaked yet, a bet the authors weren’t quite willing to take. Already some 80% of the World’s carbon emissions carry a price through carbon trade or tax schemes, and thinking that SA can continue to have no price for carbon in our economy is unrealistic.

“Time will tell whether this surprising interruption in emissions growth is transitory or a first step towards emissions stabilization”, the researchers wrote. “The important point is we need to look at the trend, not just one year of data”. “Plus, in the future, by absorbing more and more of our carbon dioxide emissions”.