Temperatures Will Be Too High for Human Survival in Persian Gulf

Running high-resolution versions of standard climate models, Eltahir and Pal found that many major cities in the region could exceed a tipping point for human survival, even in shaded and well-ventilated spaces.

For the millions who attend the annual hajj in Saudi Arabia, an already crowded and sometimes deadly ritual in Mecca is also likely to become even more unsafe due to the heat.

How hot? The heat index – which combines heat and humidity – may hit 165 to 170 degrees (74 to 77 Celsius) for at least six hours, according to numerous computer simulations in the new study.

“Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future”, write study co-authors Elfatih Eltahir, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and MIT alumnus Jeremy Pal, now a professor at Loyola Marymount University.

Record heat and humidity sent the feels-like temperature in Iraq to 71°C in September this year, Weather.com reports.

For years, scientists have postulated that parts of Earth could cross the 95-degree mark in future centuries if global warming continues.

This limit was nearly reached this summer, at the end of an extreme, weeklong heat wave in the region: On July 31, the wet-bulb temperature in Bandahr Mashrahr, Iran, hit 34.6 C – just a fraction below the threshold, for an hour or less. But the authors warn that city planners will have to make major adjustments as temperatures begin to cross the lethal 95-degree threshold.

“I think the study is of great importance, since it indicates where heat waves could get worst if climate change proceeds”, Schaer told MIT News. They assumed greenhouse gases would continue to accumulate in the atmosphere at their current pace, driving up global temperatures. The elderly and ill are hurt most by current heat waves, but the future is expected to be so hot that healthy, fit people would be endangered, health experts say.

Said Dr. Howard Frumkin, dean of the University of Washington school of public health, who wasn’t part of the research: “When the ambient temperatures are extremely high, as projected in this paper, then exposed people can and do die”. “We pointed to a few corners of Yemen along the Red Sea that are not as well off as other parts of the Gulf Region”.

Catholic patriarchs, cardinals, and bishops representing five continents appealed to climate negotiators on Monday to approve a “transformative” and legally binding agreement that sets global temperature limits and goals for eliminating fossil-fuel emissions.