The Ultimate College Football Playoff Analysis

The Spartans (11-1) and Hawkeyes (12-0) will sort it out on the field at 8:17 p.m. on Saturday in the Big Ten championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (TV: Fox). The Irish, last week’s No. 6, dropped to eighth.

All things being equal, if the committee is picking between one-loss teams, Oklahoma (or any other Big 12 school) should be the first one out because of this scheduling irregularity.

The reality is, even if Notre Dame had defeated Stanford, it still probably would have been left out by the committee. But jumping those two teams only places Stanford at No. 5.

Meanwhile, the one-loss teams in the Top 4, No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Oklahoma, enjoyed a more stylish November.

But the metrics show that, like Iowa, it’s hard to find phases of the game where Michigan State truly excels, and the Spartans simply are not efficient. Yet, the College Football Playoff selection committee has seeded the Hawkeyes fourth two weeks in a row.

Michigan State fans and Orange Bowl organizers learned how quickly the CFP committee can change their minds a year ago, even without the hint of apparent cause. Florida 10-219. Houston 11-120. Now, they face their biggest test of the season, a red-hot Michigan State team, in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Tar Heels (11-1) are No. 10. A loss by Clemson could mean chaos for the top 4, putting the North Carolina Tar Heels in direct contention for a spot but leaving open the possibility of a two loss Pac 12 champion Stanford sneaking in through the back door. However, Iowa’s notable wins came against the Wisconsin Badgers and Northwestern Wildcats.

Teams four, five and six are going to argue about the No. 4 spot. Limiting the playoff to four teams not only leaves out possible underdogs who could spice the competition up, but it also omits contenders who have the clear ability to compete for a title.

Stanford salvaged their season and chances at a playoff bid with a last-second win over Notre Dame in Palo Alto on Saturday. A big play on defense or special teams – or maybe a trick play – could be Florida’s best chance at an upset.

Should North Carolina complete the unlikely, and Florida achieve the seemingly impossible, the Playoff committee better have plenty of Excedrin on hand, though. Oklahoma wrapped up the Big 12 title and is idle until the December 31 semifinal, although Long said the Sooners’ conference championship won’t be factored into the committee’s rankings until next week.

In most years, the SEC champion-even a two-loss champ, as Florida would be-will get into the playoffs, but Florida would be the worst SEC champion we’ve seen in well over a decade.

I’m not so sure one of Ohio State’s opponents, 3-10 Hawaii, which went 0-8 in the Mountain West, is much better than North Carolina A&T, which went 9-2 and tied for first in the MEAC.

Ohio State’s regular season is done, but in familiar fashion – think back to last season – the Buckeyes capped it with a bang, demolishing No. 15 MI on the road to finish second in the Big Ten East Division. Oklahoma State (10-2), 18.

No. 6 Ohio State and No. 10 North Carolina are both looking for help this weekend, with the Tar Heels looking to create their own luck in the ACC Championship against No. 1 Clemson.

Or Stanford, with two losses, jumps the Buckeyes if the Cardinal beat USC for the Pac-12 title. And let’s not forget a victory over then #9 Texas A&M, who is also unranked this week but still sits at 8-4, joining the other 3 teams with records at least 4 games over.500.