The World May Have Hit Peak Carbon Emissions

In a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday (Dec 7), scientists have estimated that reducing tropical deforestation, expanding the tropical forest area and restoring degraded tropical forests could cut net carbon emissions by more than 18 billion tonnes of CO2 per year, the equivalent of almost half of current annual global CO2 emissions.

While there is some good news, Stanford University’s Professor Rob Jackson, lead author of the report, said even if peak global emissions were reached within a decade or two, massive amounts carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels will still be generated. Researchers said that carbon dioxide emissions have fallen during times of economic recession but this is the first time that the emissions have fallen during the times of strong economic growth. Though how much less has recently been a subject of great controversy when news broke that China, also the world’s largest Carbon dioxide emitter, had been burning up to 17 percent more coal a year than its government had disclosed.

Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen at 2.4 percent every year since 2000, where nations such as China and India relied on coal and fossil fuels to boost their economies. China, for example, has committed to peak emissions around 2030, while Mexico is aiming to peak emissions by 2026.

The report predicts a swift arrest of the rapid emission growth witnessed over the past decade, which could in turn keep global temperature increase below two degrees this century.

According to a recent analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2014 witnessed a drop in consumption of coal by coal-intensive industries in China such as steel, cement and fertilizer, and as a result, overall coal production and use dropped dramatically.

Nuclear power has been “less successful” in cutting emissions due to a fall in global capacity, which is attributed to the phasing out of nuclear generators in Germany and Switzerland, and continued high cost.

Reconciling developing countries’ right to continue to develop with the world’s need for reduced emissions is one of the highest hurdles that will need to be cleared to achieve a meaningful global climate change agreement at COP21.

Australia was responsible for more than one per cent of the world’s total carbon emissions from fossil fuels, placing the country 17th on the list of largest contributors. 2014 saw slowed fossil fuel emissions growth and 2015 has a projected decline from the previous year.

Dr Canadell said India’s carbon future was of concern, stressing that they would be a critical recipient of any collective financial allocations made at COP 21 in Paris to help emerging economies stem their greenhouse gas emissions.

Le Quere said she also thinks world emissions, including China’s, will go back up and 2014 will not end up being the peak year. You shouldn’t declare 2014 the Year that Carbon Peaked, though.

“The most promising finding in our report is the coupling of lower carbon emissions with a strong economic growth of more than 3 per cent”, Jackson said. “So what’s going on around them, maybe they’re not as aware of them as they usually would be”.