Tropical depression in Pacific expected to strengthen

Located more than 2,300 miles southeast of the Big Island, 19-E, which formed Wednesday afternoon, still had sustained winds of 30 mph and was tracking west at 13 mph as of 5 p.m. Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center. On Sunday, forecasters predict a turn toward the west-northwest.

While it’s still a tropical depression, system 19-E is expected to build to a tropical storm later today, and potentially reach hurricane strength within 48 hours on its approach to the Central Pacific.

NOAA’s GOES-West satellite captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression Nora at 1800 UTC (10 a.m. EDT) that showed strong vertical wind shear from the southwest continued pushing the clouds and showers east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Microwave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the eastern edge of the convective region. A westward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Forecasters say that upper-level winds will keep the system from redeveloping in the coming days.

As mentioned in previous advisories, it would not be surprising to see more strengthening than is now forecast given the very conducive large-scale environment, similar to the 96-h GFS and ECMWF model forecasts of a 938-mb and 956-mb hurricane, respectively.