Tropical Storm Erika heads toward Puerto Rico, south Florida

Wednesday afternoon’s long-range forecast track from the National Hurricane Center shows the “cone of uncertainty” for Tropical Storm Erika extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Several islands, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla are under a Tropical Storm Warning. The alerts also stretch to Puerto Rico. The city recently remembered the anniversary of Hurricane Andrew on Monday, 23 years after the storm levelled much of South Florida, and was considered the costliest hurricane of all time until Katrina in 2005. Tropical Storm Erika seems to be heading toward the Sunshine State as it continues gaining strength.

The last tropical system to hit the state was Tropical Storm Andrea in 2013. It was expected to reach the Leeward Islands early Thursday before moving on to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands later in the day.

“The overall pattern is the most favorable I’ve seen in a long time for a potential Florida landfall”, said Bob Henson, a meteorologist who writes a blog for private forecaster Weather Underground.

Computer models that disagreed Tuesday on Erika’s future path now say the storm is more likely to turn north, which could fuel higher winds. A tropical storm watch was in effect for the northern Dominican Republic, the Turks & Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas.

Meantime, a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.

NHC forecasters say that the environment ahead of the storm is characterized by low shear, very warm waters, and a moist atmosphere.

“Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, but a weakening trend is expected to begin after that”.

Ignacio was centred about 1,365 miles (2,195 kilometres) east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and was moving west at 12 mph (19 kph).

The Miami-based National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said that the storm, the fifth since the start of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, was now located 195 miles east of Antigua and was packing winds of 45 miles per hour (mph).