Turkey’s Erdogan says he will call a new election for November 1

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu abandoned efforts to build a coalition government on Tuesday, following the failure of talks with the leaders of two smaller parties.

Amid mounting violence and political uncertainty, Turkey’s lira has been hitting all-time lows, surging past a record 3 per dollar on Thursday, with its 25% drop this year destabilizing the economy and making it the worst-performing emerging market currency after the Brazilian real.

Erdoğan, founder of the AKP, could still in theory ask the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) to try to form a government.

“It will be seen as the party that has forced early elections on a recalcitrant Turkish electorate at a time when there are severe challenges, both from the security perspective and also economically”, Ulgen said, adding that dissent within the AKP could start to bubble over.

Turkey’s opposition parties CHP and MHP had coalition preconditions that included reopening 2013 corruption investigations into the government then headed by Erdogan, as well as preventing Erdogan from acting as an executive president.

The election will come as Turkey fights an “anti-terror” offensive against Kurdish militants and jihadists, with some critics accusing Erdogan of seeking political gain out of the conflict.

In response to the PKK attack, a nationalist opposition party called for an extraordinary meeting of the National Security Council and the declaration of martial law in parts of the country in line with constitutional provisions. Erdogan is widely expected to call a new election and appoint an interim government.

In a note to political parties, the election commission proposed that any new election should be held on November 1, AKP officials said.

“Escalating violence may chip away at support for the HDP in the west of the country”, said Naci Sapan, who analyzes Kurdish politics at the Tigris Communal Research Center in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir.

Erdogan, who founded the ruling party and remains influential, is reported to favor new elections in the hopes that the party can win back its majority. The President of a parliamentary republic like Turkey is supposed to remain above party politics and serve as the largely ceremonial head of state, so Kilicdaroglu, Bahceli and Demirtas’ stances on the issue are completely reasonable – to everyone except Mr. Erdogan, of course. A coalition government would have limited Erdogan’s ability to influence the government.

Erdogan appeared to have kicked off an official campaign again last week, addressing neighborhood administrators and representatives of non-governmental organizations, and mounting an attack on the pro-Kurdish party’s leaders.