TV executive predicts 500-show bubble destined to deflate

“I’m not saying that I believe we are in a bubble which is going to pop, causing us to go from 500 scripted series to half that number”, Landgraf said. “Rather, I think we are ballooning into a condition of oversupply which will at some point slowly deflate, perhaps from 500-plus shows to 400 or a little less than that”. The streaming service resolutely avoids releasing viewership numbers. Because of Peak TV, “we’ve lost much of the coherent collective conversation”, he said.

Landgraf’s implication was that aggressively expanding companies like Netflix can’t possibly pay close attention to the quality of every series they are making.

Counting worldwide series, Landgraf said FX’s research team projects there will be 430-450 scripted series released this year. “It also gives us a chance to broaden our storytelling”.

Landgraf has revised his prediction that TV crop would peak this year, and now says the number will decline by 2019.

Landgraf also revealed FX’s programming budget was “approximately one-third of HBO’s and about one-sixth of Netflix’s”, suggesting it is around US$1 billion a year.

In further news, Landgraf revealed FX sister net FXX would move “aggressively” into animated content.

He said this increase was effectively just the beginning, and that it’s “being driven by the streaming services, and much more than any other service, by Netflix, which has at this point premiered and/or announced 71 original adult scripted series”. “I think it would be bad for storytellers and for our culture is any one company were able to seize 40 or 50 or 60 percent market share within storytelling”.

For reference, Landgraf said, “That’s more than the announced future output of HBO, Showtime, Starz, and FX combined”. Original scripted series climbed from 389 to 419 series in 2015. While output from the broadcast networks and premium cable is flat, and basic cable is down nine shows, online programming, which includes Netflix, Hulu, Amazon and other streaming services, has doubled its output, from 24 to 49 shows.

The volume of shows makes it more challenging than ever for networks to monetize their shows and reach overwhelmed viewers, said Landgraf. “Why are they making so many shows and is it efficient?” He said he sees no “end game” for the series, as long as Murphy keeps coming up with inventive ideas and the audience is there. Landgraf argued that from a financial perspective, most networks cannot keep up with the $4 million an episode cost on a series that only attracts 380,000 viewers. “It’s a feast or starvation business”, Landgraf said.