Two Fed officials say rate hike likely next month

This is exactly the type of volatility that I warned about in last week’s post. The data will determine “the when”, when it comes to lifting rates, he said. Over the past 12 months, construction has added 233,000 jobs. Markets reacted quickly to the upside surprise. Economists polling on Bloomberg estimated 185,000 jobs, but as the results came out, the stock market reacted.

The US employment gains were broadly based. We continue to see the need for a further adjustment in USA rate expectations implying the likelihood of further downside for Eur/USD in particular from here, with our forecast o $1.06 looking like its going to be reached much earlier than previously expected. The sudden boost of the employment rate has rendered the unemployment rate at a seven and a half year low of 5 percent.

Still, he said that his own preferred inflation measure, the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean PCE index, shows price pressures closer to the Fed’s 2% target. The labour market data is closely watched by the Federal Reserve and comes after chair Janet Yellen said last week that the upcoming December meeting was a “live possibility” for an interest rate hike.

Fed analyst and University of Oregon Professor Timothy Duy recently wrote that a Fed rate hike is becoming likelier even as it is counterproductive. Rates have been too low for too long, and it is time for them to rise-no matter what the jobs report. Another USA dollar surge could fuel rising instability in emerging markets, thus exacerbating the Fed’s previous concerns.

United Kingdom data this week is focused around the employment report on Wednesday.

For most Fed officials who have commented, average monthly payroll growth of more than 180,000 since August is more than enough for them to be satisfied the job market is tightening at a strong enough pace. False reporting to try and fool the masses is one thing…but the truth is the truth no matter how many times or to what extent you tell the lie.

HONG KONG – Tokyo’s benchmark Nikkei index closed at its highest level in more than two months, while traders in Asia were closely watching a U.S. jobs report. Average wage inflation over the most recent twelve months is still running at a very healthy 3.1% so Canadian consumers are enjoying a rise in their purchasing power as we head into the holiday season, an encouraging sign for our retailers.

The third, however-the participation rate-was the one major job indicator that failed to signal robustness. If this trend continues, our policy makers hope that it will fuel the rise in business investment that they believe is so essential to any sustainable-recovery scenarios.

Five-year Government of Canada bond yields rose fifteen basis points last week, closing at 1.03% on Friday.

The Federal Reserve now has an option where they can increase the interest paid on excess reserves. Unfortunately, markets will now obsess about the next Fed meeting, devoting far more attention than the event strictly deserves.

“December could be [an] appropriate time for raising rates as long as the economy progresses as projected”, Mr Rosengren said in slides accompanying a presentation to be delivered in Rhode Island. He was, however, cagey when pressed by reporters about the topic, saying that he looks forward to a lot of economic stats before the month is over, and that he would “wait and see on that”.