UK PM May’s lead over Labour shrinks

A Tory victory on June 8 is still the most likely result.

However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, a 68-year-old socialist peace campaigner, has been pulling big crowds at rallies across the country, brushing off warnings from opponents in his own party that he would lead them to electoral disaster.

So, with this in mind, why should you vote Labour, especially with such a certain outcome? Instead, the Conservatives are starting to get anxious.

A Labour victory would signal a political quake in the U.K. The party is running on its most unabashed Socialist manifesto in over 30 years, promising to re-nationalize the country’s railroads and utilities, as well as to raise taxes on business and on the wealthy. If the polls are right, this means that May could actually lose seats in Parliament rather than gain them.

So, could the polls be seriously wrong?

On April 18th, when Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, announced a snap election to be held on June 8th, pollsters must have considered themselves blessed. For instance, on 29 May an ICM survey gave the Conservatives a 12 point lead. This will test the cross-party support for her pre-election pledges. Her defence of the Conservative’s proposed levy on the estates of elderly care users last weekend was met with derisive laughter by reporters.

But things weren’t so simple. As incumbent, May has the right to make the first attempt to form a coalition, though her tough stance on Brexit (“no deal is better than a bad deal”) is likely to make finding a suitable partner hard. Her attempts to stay on message, no matter what, led to criticism that her campaign lacked any substance. “If we are the largest party we go ahead, no deals, with our manifesto, with our budget and our Queen’s speech, and that’s the conversations we have had, that’s it, no deals”. Channel 4’s Michael Crick asked May during a tense question-and-answer session with journalists this week.

If they are right then she may be the most successful Conservative leader in nearly 50 years.

Nicola Sturgeon’s, likely somewhat dimished, phalanx of MPs would have the option either of endorsing Labour’s proposals without extracting concessions or abstaining and allowing Conservative and Northern Irish unionist MPs to bring Labour down.

A quarter are satisfied with the Liberal Democrat leader (down 3 points) while 44% are dissatisfied (up 5 points).

At the same time, Corbyn has been able to portray himself as an anti-establishment underdog, proffering populist spending increases, and he has largely avoided major mistakes. But that aim jars with his commitment to end freedom of movement for European Union workers to come to Britain, which other European Union countries insist is non-negotiable for single market membership.

There is a catch, however.

A video includes a clip of Mr Corbyn saying the words “abolish their army”, taken from a speech he gave at a Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament event in 2012.

Ms Long-Bailey, seen as a rising star in the party, said Labour’s first industrial mission will be to ensure that 60% of United Kingdom energy comes from low carbon or renewable sources by 2020. But this time around the percentage of voters potentially switching their loyalty between Labour and Conservative is around 20%, according to intelligence being examined inside Tory party headquarters.

Quietly, very quietly – there’s an election on – senior Tories are telling me they want to see a more collegiate approach and more collective decision taking if the Tories win.

“The difference in the polls in this election is easy to understand – it is nearly wholly to do with how pollsters treat turnout”, YouGov pollster Anthony Wells said in a blog post.

There are hopes that Labour will snatch some seats from the Conservatives – and one from the SNP – but the widespread expectation is that there will still be a net loss of seats on Thursday.

But since this method proved to be unreliable, the models were updated. It’s a big gamble. People in Brexit strongholds, such as Burnley – the home of my football club and where I have close friends – voted for Brexit in unprecedented numbers.