United Nations report on climate change sets off alarm bells

“E$3 ven with erroneous attribution of extreme weather/climate events and projections using climate models that are running too hot and not fit for objective of projecting 21st century climate change, the IPCC still has not made a strong case for this massive investment to prevent 1.5C warming”, she said on her Climate Etc. blog.

“The window on keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees C is closing rapidly and the current emissions pledges made by signatories to the Paris Agreement do not add up to us achieving that goal”, said King.

The final scenario compensates for a “business-as-usual” economy and lifestyle by allowing a large overshoot of the 1.5°C target.

While more than 180 countries have accepted the report’s summary, the USA (which is the second biggest emitter in the world) said that their acceptance of the report does not “imply endorsement” of the findings. But in certain circumstances, nuclear power decreases. In a statement, Katie Warrick, its interim chief executive, noted that forecasts from the International Energy Agency, a global analysis organisation, “continue to see a role for coal for the foreseeable future”.

This means no more Carbon dioxide should be put out than is being removed by current measures, such as planting trees. “The power of this report is that it’s not a simple thing anymore to say governments get going and fix it for us”.

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“Scientists might want to write in capital letters, ‘ACT NOW IDIOTS”, but they need to say that with facts and numbers, ‘ said Kaisa Kosonen, from Greenpeace, who observed the negotiations.

The world is already experiencing around 1C of global warming, and events such as floods, storms and heatwaves like the one in the United Kingdom this summer have become increasingly likely as a result of climate change, according to experts. Temperatures on extreme hot days in mid-latitudes could increase by 3 °C with 1.5 °C of global warming, versus 4 °C in a 2 °C world.

Two degrees of warming could destroy ecosystems on around 13% of the world’s land area, increasing the risk of extinction for many insects, plants and animals. This is the crux of the United Nations climate change science panel report that all the countries accepted on Saturday after a contentious and strenuous meeting between scientists and diplomats in Korea.

A major report on the impact of global warming, to be published on Monday, will warn about the speed and scale of measures required to keep temperature rises to a level beyond which many vulnerable countries say their survival is at risk.

The Arctic is likely to be ice-free in summer around once a century at 1.5C but at least once a decade if warming climbs to 2C. “Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all ( 99 percent) would be lost with 2°C”.

The half-a-degree difference would result in fewer people dying or being displaced from extreme heat or other severe weather, the IPCC report said.

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5 degrees C or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such as the loss of some ecosystems”, said Hans-Otto Pörtner, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II. On the other hand, climate change negotiations are hard without some target to work towards.

The report highlights a number of climate impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C, or more.

According to the authors of the study, limiting the rise in temperature to 1.5 °C, rather than 2°C is vital if humanity hopes to mitigate some of the most devastating effects of climate change. “Impacts on natural and human systems from global warming have already been observed (high confidence)”.

For the low-energy demand pathway, for example, coal consumption would drop 78% by 2030, and 97% by mid-century. The report recognises that the projected increase in nuclear generation can be realised through existing mature nuclear technology or through new options such as generation III/IV reactors and SMRs.

The feasibility of solar, wind and battery storage has improved significantly in recent years, which could signal the system is transforming, the report says. The report also notes that the current deployment pace of nuclear energy is constrained by “social acceptability” in some countries.