US, Iran forge new diplomatic relationship as deal advances – Kerry talking to

Most recently Kerry spent hours with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jayad Zarif, negotiating the release of U.S. sailors captured in Iranian waters.

To understand, however, why the Saudis chose to go on the offensive now, a brief review of the development of events between Tehran and Riyadh, as well as Riyadh and Washington, is warranted.

Conscious of these perceptions, the administration moved warily into the Saudi-Iran spat that erupted over New Year’s weekend. Their plan was to strangle the Rouhani administration in yet another worldwide crisis primarily aimed at provoking the USA to take a hostile stance toward Iran in support of the Saudis.

While Saudi Arabia “rules a country that wants to preserve the status quo in the Middle East”, Iran’s leaders “want to export their revolution to Arab countries and thus seek to destabilize the region through subversion and propaganda as well as military and economic assistance to Shiite militias in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon”, he alleged. But the UAE, a federation of seven emirates dominated by the capital Abu Dhabi and the commercial hub Dubai, is also home to approximately 400,000 Iranians, and is a major hub for Iran’s global trade. As a result, a recent analysis by Eurasia Group, the world’s largest political-risk consultancy, maintains that “Saudi Arabia is more geopolitically isolated than at any other point in the last several decades”. In response, rioters torched the Saudi Embassy in Tehran, prompting Saudi Arabia and a handful of Gulf states to break diplomatic ties.

Though Iranian police drove the protestors off fairly swiftly, Saudi has allegedly bombed Iran’s embassy in Yemen (though this itself is contested) and diplomatic ties have been cut. Saudi Arabia and Iran already are backing opposing sides in Syria and refusing to cooperate against the Islamic State.

“His visit would allay the Gulf states’ concerns that the U.S.is being more critical of Saudi Arabia than Iran, a perception that could further reduce USA influence, especially in Riyadh when it is needed the most”, Ben-Meir wrote.

The fourth factor – and one that most likely played a role in the execution of al-Nimr – is the gradual shift of United States foreign policy from an unconditional Saudi ally and a perpetual adversary of the Iranian establishment, to a more sensibly balanced approach toward the two rivals. Washington’s non-committal stance, along with efforts to broker a deal with Iran, should serve as very loud signals to Saudi Arabia.

It defends its execution of shiite cleric Nimr al Nimr as the work of an independent judiciary.

Third, it would be wise for Secretary of State John Kerry to travel to Riyadh, even for only symbolic reasons, and to reiterate the U.S.’ commitment to Saudi national security. They invite it, and believe me, as President Obama said the other day, if that’s the choice they leave us, we’re going to do what’s necessary to protect our people.