US jobs data could pave way for interest rate hike

Monthly job growth has averaged 211,286 so far this year, a level suggesting employers are confident the economy will continue to expand and require more workers. At 62.6%, it remains at levels not seen since the late 1970s.

Government bonds rose slightly.

The average workweek ticked higher and the hourly wage, closely watched by the Fed for signs of tightening slack in the jobs market, edged up 0.2 percent to $24.99 after being flat in June.

July’s job growth is lower than the average of the past year, but overall employment growth is holding up well, according to The Conference Board.

“A lot of older workers have just dropped out”. The 2.1% advance from July 2014 compared with a median forecast of 2.3%. Pay raises are meager.

More than 6 million people were estimated to be involuntarily part-time employees over the course of recent months, meaning their hours had been cut back or that they were unable to find a full-time job. Retailers hired 35 900 workers.

The proportion of adults who either have a job or are looking for one has also stabilized recently. The broad-based pickup was accompanied by a flurry of orders, prodding more companies to beef up staff levels. And instead of spending their savings at the gasoline pump, consumers have mostly pocketed the additional cash.

“If we can keep the expansion going, the problem [with black employment] becomes less significant as the labor market gets stronger”, economist Madowitz says. He added that a rate increase would be positive for stocks, because it would reaffirm economic growth in the U.S. that should lead to higher corporate earnings. And some Americans who have given up looking for work might resume their searches if more good openings were available. “With the Fed’s decision on the timing of the first rate rise being “data dependent”, today’s report does nothing to discourage the belief that a September hike is very much on the table, albeit by no means a done deal”. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.3 percent.

Federal officials began tracking employment among people with disabilities in October 2008.

Productivity fell at a 3.1% annual rate in the first three months of 2015. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed is down by 986,000. Estimates of 96 economists ranged from gains of 140 000 to 310 000 after a previously reported 223 000 June increase. Now the Fed is close to concluding that the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. “Following last week’s report of a similar year-over-year gain in the Employment Cost Index, it is hard to argue that wage gains are firming”.

The unemployment rate stayed at a seven-year low of 5.3 per cent. The prospect of an increase hit shares on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones falling 127.21 to 17292.54 in early trading. “Low inflation and cooling growth will create powerful arguments against rate hikes”, said Williamson, the Markit economist, pointing out that wages have only gone up 2.1% over the a year ago.