USDA: Soybean Harvest Speeds Up, Corn Slows

Based on the FBM records, the average crop yields for 2014 across southern Minnesota were approximately 174 bushels per acre for corn and 47 bushels per acre for soybeans. Soft white spring wheat outturn was estimated at 29,447,000 bushels, down 5,293,000 bushels, or 15%, from 34,740,000 bushels forecast in August and down 1,105,000 bushels, or 4%, from 30,552,000 bushels in 2014. It is also 5 percentage points ahead of the national five-year average.

13 percent of the soybeans have been brought in. As of Sunday, 74% of the soybeans were in the drop stage, ahead of the 70% five-year average.

“Combines have started to roll, and 5 percent of corn and 7 percent of soybeans have already been harvested”, Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey said in his weekly crop assessment. Wheat futures traded about 5¢ to 6¢ a bushel higher after the report was released, with added support from a lower-than-expected USDA September 1 wheat stocks estimate. Soyabean stocks, meanwhile, stood at 191 million bushels, a four-year high. Off-farm stocks, at 1.44 billion bushels, are up 21 percent from a year ago.

“Ths report is friendly to the wheat market, but it’s hard to say it is bullish”, said Randy Martinson, commodity broker and manager of Progressive Ag Marketing, in Fargo, N.D. Martinson was the commentator on an MGEX post-report press conference. CBOT November soyabeans were down 1/4-cent, or 0.1 percent, at $8.84 a bushel by 12:16 pm CDT (1716 GMT).

U.S. wheat inventories as of September 1 were seen at 2.09bn bushels, exceeding market expectations by 51m bushels, indicating lower demand.

The USDA reported on Wednesday that wheat production totalled 2.052 billion bushels, below the average trade estimate of 2.133 billion bushels.

Ninety-two percent of soybeans were turning color or beyond, while 72 percent of soybeans were dropping leaves.

Buie said soybean yields have been very good with corn yields mixed. Monday afternoon’s wholesale pork price was 85.14 cents/pound, 1.20 cents higher than Friday, with all categories posting gains with the exception of picnic shoulders. “If we’re missing sales now, we don’t have much time to make them up”, Mr. Nelson said, noting most export sales for USA supplies typically occur between September and January.

At this stage it looks as though importers will hold back on buying against any price increases, and help perpetuate the race to the bottom for wheat prices in global markets.