White House urges Beijing, Taipei to avoid Taiwan election tensions

But this is an election year in a number of countries-including several in the Asia Pacific. As with Hong Kong, it was Beijing’s expectation that the island would be “reunited” with the mainland – and quickly.

That could make relations with China uncertain, because unlike the KMT, the DPP favours Taiwan’s independence and does not recognise the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) and the People’s Republic of China as part of “one China”.

An elderly recycler pushes her hand truck past a local campaign headquarters featuring a poster of Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party, DPP, presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, left, along with a local politician in New Taipei City, Taiwan, Friday, Jan. 15, 2016.

Regarding cross-strait relations after Taiwan’s presidential election, United States Department of State announced that the Deputy Secretary Antony Blinken is going to visit China and meet Zhang Zhijun, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office.

Such a warning is not something to be ignored.

However, according to Taiwan media, Tsai talked to reporters at least three times this week on her last campaign trail.

China, however, warned it would not tolerate any moves by Tsai to undermine China’s sovereignty claims.

That said, there is a world of difference between firing off words and firing off missiles.

Young Taiwanese, who are distinctly more pro-independence than their elders, are increasingly concerned about issues like inequality and the environment.

On Saturday, Taiwanese voters will pick a new president and parliament, something people in communist-run mainland China can not do. Trade between the two is also significant. China, he added, can only “borrow from” Taiwan’s experience. In short, there are substantial economic interests at play here and, for a wobbling economy like China, the time is probably not right to “capsize” those ties.

The DPP has traditionally leaned in favor of independence – a highly charged issue with China viewing Taiwan as a breakaway province that could be taken back by force if necessary.

If the DPP wins, it means the island is moving towards a political system in which voters prefer to transfer power from one party to another, ending decades of mostly KMT rule. It also appears to be a key reason, along with questions of domestic economic equality, why Tsai Ing-wen is likely to win.

She lost a presidential bid in 2012 but has subsequently led the party to regional election victories.

It comes after an unprecedented rapprochement under current KMT president Ma Ying-jeou, which culminated in a summit between Ma and Chinese President Xi Jinping in November. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is the world’s worst-performing global stocks measure this year with a 17 percent loss, while the yuan has fallen 5.8 percent in Shanghai since a surprise devaluation on August 11, even as the central bank burnt through $321 billion of its foreign-exchange reserves supporting the currency over the last five months. Almost 60% identify themselves now as simply “Taiwanese”.

Tsai has repeatedly promised to maintain cross-Strait relations and in her campaign rally in Kaohsiung on Thursday she reiterated that if elected she would try her best to maintain cross-Strait stability. The emergence of multiple, small pan-blue affiliated parties threaten to further split votes for the KMT. As a result, the party was convincingly beaten in the 2008 election.

They often struggle to do so. Xi has called Taiwan’s return to China a “historical inevitability”, and he holds most of the cards in terms of the balance of power. After all, if you were an alien from outer space and someone tried to explain to you the One-China policy – which dates from a strategic era long gone, lacks any real support among Taiwanese, and involves the isolation of a globally important economy and democracy – you might assume they were talking gibberish. There are various ways Washington can do this.

Tsai, who received a law degree at Cornell University and a PhD from the London School of Economics, would be the first female president of Taiwan. “The two sides should not set a ceiling for economic cooperation”.

Taiwan’s fate poses tricky challenges for US policymakers.

There’s a gap slowly widening in the Taiwanese electorate, between an older generation that still culturally identifies with China and a younger generation that has only ever known a free and independent Taiwan.

“No matter what changes take place on the island, this position will never change and has not changed”. Certainly, given Japan’s own intention to become a normal strategic partner with the US and allies in the region, a more regularized relationship with Taipei could provide increased security to Japan itself.