Wall Street analysts at FBR Capital Markets have provided some staggering analysis about the future of TV, suggesting that, at its current rate, Netflix would surpass major networks like ABC, CBS, Fox, and NBC, in 24-hour viewership if it were to be measured by typical Nielsen standards, reports Variety. If a subscriber is logged in to Netflix and streaming a program or movie, chances are pretty high that he’s actually watching it, and focusing on nothing else.
“I think what you are seeing happening with Netflix right now is really there are three main things that are going on, and, I think the rating is certainly going to be part of that”, Holland began. We already knew that the streaming video (slash DVD-by-mail) company was gobbling up about a third of all traffic on the internet.
How did FBR come up with this information? The FBR analysts calculated what Netflix Nielsen rating would be by divides the two-hour figure by 24 hours, then multiplying that by the number of Netflix US subs as a percentage of households.
Here’s how the analysts did the math: Netflix said users streamed about 10 billion hours of video in Q1 2015, equating to almost two hours per subscriber per day. That might not create a huge impact on the analysts’ overall conclusion-how many people are abandoning NBC on TV, only to turn around and watch it on their laptops?-But it’s still a fair point.
Variety said the analysts found that 57 percent of subscribers would choose Netflix over a cable and satellite subscription. Add that to the fact that Netflix is spending billions on content rights over the course of 2015-expected to total more than premium networks like HBO-and any caveats to the analysis look pretty unimportant to the big picture, and that picture will be brought to you by Netflix. But things are on an upward trajectory. “At this pace, in a year, Netflix will have a larger 24-hour audience than all broadcast networks”.