Fewer Replacements Hit PC, Tablet Sales: Gartner

A slowdown in combined shipments of devices – PCs, tablets, ultramobiles and mobile phones – is looming as users increasingly opt to hang on to their equipment, according to a market forecast from Gartner.

All categories of device will see declines, the company said, with the exception of mobile handsets.

“In 2016, we expect currency impacts will negate and while Windows 10 products on the Intel Skylake platform will increase in volumes throughout the year, Windows 10 adoption among businesses will ramp sharply in 2017, where we expect the PC market to return to a 4% growth”. The resesarch firm says PC sales are expected to drop 7.3% this year, to 291 million units, and remain stagnant next year as well.

“Users are extending the lifetime of their devices, or deciding not to replace their devices at all”.

In some areas of the world, segments of the consumer market still cannot afford a PC, but can afford a less expensive smartphone, Nguyen noted.

The report doesn’t single out any vendor, though implications span the gamut from Apple’s (AAPL) Macbook laptops and iPad to Intel’s (INTC) PC chips to Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows and just about any computing device Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Lenovo Group (0992HK) and other vendors would sell.

Gartner predicts that ultramobile (tablets and clamshells) shipments will decrease 12% to 199 million units mainly because of lack of device replacement.

Still, leasing plans and other inducements by device makers might not encourage buyers to exchange phones more quickly, unless the newest devices have more than incremental improvements, Nguyen said. In 2017, shipments are projected to touch 218 million units, representing a year-over-year growth of 4.8%.

Emerging markets in the Asia/Pacific region, including India and Indonesia, have helped to push this growth, recording a 43 percent increase in shipments in 2015, with the Chinese market also continuing to grow 3 percent.

The Gartner forecast, announced Wednesday, is a reversal from one quarter ago when the research firm predicted overall growth of 1.5% for devices globally, when compared to 2014.

Furthermore, mobile phone shipment is likely to touch the 2 billion unit mark by 2017, of which 89% will be contributed by smartphones.

“The tablet market is coming under increasing pressure”, said Gartner research director Annette Zimmermann.