India ‘to overtake China by 2022’

The report also said rapidly growing Nigeria is expected to eclipse the United States to become the third most populous country within the next 35 years.

“Ten years ago, world population was growing by 1.24% per year”.

By the middle of the century, there are likely to be as many as 9.7 billion people worldwide, with six of the 10 largest countries – India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the U.S. – expected to have populations exceeding 300 million people. The report said several countries faced a population decline of more than 15 per cent by 2050, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine. Former Socialist countries such as Central and Eastern Europe have proved to be the exception to the rule in relation to population trends.

On the other hand, the populations of 48 countries/areas are anticipated to decline between 2015 and 2050. In Africa, children under 15 account for two fifths of the population.

Africa will drive more than half of the world’s population growth with the population of 28 of its countries set to double in 35 years.

John Wilmoth, Head of the UN Population division said in New York, that the report indicated that Nigeria was on course to outstrip the US by 2050 to become the third largest population.

That will rise even further – to 11.2bn by 2100, experts predict, with countries in the developing world bearing the brunt of the sharp rise. He has predicted that the population is “tripling” and in 60 years time the world population could stand at around 40 billion people. Sanyal argues that fertility rates are lower than they have ever been and continue to fall. “Across Europe and across North America, to some degree, migration is helping to keep the population younger than it would be otherwise”.

Nearly 90 per cent of Indian population is now young (age between 0-59 years), which would be around 80 per cent by 2050 and 65 per cent by 2100.

Demographers have known for some time that the number of people in India would surpass the number in China, the two most populous countries in the world.

“To realise the substantial reductions in fertility projected … it is essential to invest in reproductive health and family planning, particularly in the least-developed countries, so that women and couples can achieve their desired family size”, says the report. It’s estimated that 34 percent of Europeans will be above age 60 by 2050.

A new UN report released on Wednesday updated population estimates with new data from national censuses in 2010 as well as recent health and demographic surveys.